Reporter's Notebook: Capitol Hill's legislative clock is ticking ahead of the midterms

We’re deep enough into the season to have a sense of how the year is going for various clubs and players.

We see which players are most expendable by the trade deadline. And we get an early line on what to anticipate this fall.

Could sub-.500 clubs like the Texas Rangers or The Athletics (now playing in Sacramento) make the postseason? Did the Baltimore Orioles get what they paid for when they signed Pete Alonso from the New York Mets? Will the Detroit Tigers deal back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal to the Atlanta Braves or Cleveland Guardians?

All becomes clearer as we approach the All-Star Break in less than a month.

The same is true in Congress. But the schedule is a little more advanced on Capitol Hill compared to the baseball calendar. Yes, Major League Baseball would play a potential Game 7 of the World Series on Oct. 31. Election Day for the midterms is Nov. 3.

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However, the Capitol Hill timeframe is more truncated than the baseball slate.

In some respects, Congress is already past its legislative equivalent of the Dog Days of August. In fact, both the House and Senate will likely be out of session for all but a day – if that – in August. They’ll be back in September and then out again until after the midterm.

That is, unless there’s another lengthy government shutdown. And that’s a distinct possibility.

The government’s fiscal year expires at 11:59:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 30. Yes, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle want to rush home in the fall to campaign before the midterms. But last year’s record 43-day comprehensive government shutdown may just be a legislative amuse bouche of what we’re in for this year.

Plus, if Democrats again go to the mat over healthcare or the lack of guardrails for ICE and Border Patrol – despite Republicans just funding those agencies for the rest of the Trump presidency earlier this month – they may view a government shutdown and bogging down everything in Washington as the equivalent of campaigning.

The Senate is meeting this week. The House is out. Chatter started ricocheting around the Capitol this week that the House might consider sending everyone home until September at the end of the next work period. The official calendar has the House meeting through July 2. After adopting the One Big Beautiful Bill last summer, the House left for its August recess a day early in mid-July. One could see the House conceivably cutting town a bit early this year too.

That said, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., wants to advance a few spending bills across the floor before the recess. The House has already approved two of the 12 bills: one for military construction and veterans programs. The other for agriculture.

The House is poised to approve the Energy and Water spending bill next week as well as one for national security initiatives.

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Republicans would like to approve the annual defense funding measure soon. That bill consumes well over half of all discretionary spending (money which Congress allocates each year). The GOP may need to follow suit from last year where the House passed the defense plan with only Republican votes. But if the House greenlights the Pentagon’s bill, it will have approved around 80 percent of all spending for the next fiscal year.

However, the Senate is another question. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins, R-Maine, canceled planned sessions to craft multiple spending bills over the past few weeks. She’s blamed Democrats for lack of cooperation.

That said, control of the Senate may hinge on Maine as Collins faces embattled Democratic nominee Graham Platner this fall. Platner lugs around more baggage than a skycap at Dulles International Airport. But Democrats are sticking with Platner. Democrats are in no mood to cede any ground to Collins or present her with any easy "wins" ahead of the fall.

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While the House appropriations process may limp along, it’s all but paralyzed in the Senate. This is where a congressional contagion could spread from the Senate to the House. Some House lawmakers may question why they should stick around to tackle any bills if they’re on a road to oblivion in the Senate. Pressure will ramp up on both sides of the aisle to let everyone go home early rather than engage in an academic exercise.

And let’s fast-forward to fall and the funding deadline. The sides simply are not getting along at all. There’s no incentive for Democrats to help if both the House and Senate are in play this fall. President Trump demonstrated no incentive to negotiate during last year’s government shutdown. It could be worse this time around. That’s why a shutdown may be in the cards.

The question is whether lawmakers stay in Washington for the month of October and try to figure things out when they’d rather be in their districts and states campaigning. Remember, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., kept the House out for most of the autumn shutdown last year.

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And then there is the biggest possible bill of all: "Reconciliation 3.0."

No one really knows exactly what Republicans would stash in a massive package, ala last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill. President Trump is adamant that they add $350 billion in additional military spending on top of the Pentagon’s annual budget measure – mostly to cover the war in Iran. This would also restock munitions exhausted overseas.

Some Republicans believe they should address health care. Yet there’s still no bona fide health care proposal from the Trump Administration. There will be tax cuts. Maybe lower the cost of living. Of course, President Trump also wants the SAVE America Act tacked on to this bill. It requires proof of citizenship to vote. But the president just insisted that congressional Republicans latch the SAVE America Act to a bill to renew FISA.

Either way, the SAVE America Act wouldn’t pass muster with special Senate budget rules. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said repeatedly he would not fire the Senate’s budget umpire, Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough.

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Vulnerable Republicans would love to have another policy bill to campaign on this fall. But there’s lots of skepticism. And any decision to dismiss lawmakers from Capitol Hill early would serve as a signal that there’s no way they can pass "Reconciliation 3.0."

In Major League Baseball, we usually know by late July or early August if even an average team has an outside shot at the playoffs. The trade deadline is Aug. 3 – although some clubs may try to stock up or unload well before then.

Teams and players on the wrong side of the ledger will play out the string through the end of the season. Then pack up for the hot stove league.

Congress is similar. Members elected to the 119th Congress are in office until 11:59:59 p.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2027. Some are just running out the string.

Yogi Berra famously declared that "the future ain’t what it used to be."

In baseball, there were high expectations this season for the New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros. The season isn’t even to its mid-point. But the future isn’t panning out for these clubs.

The same is true on Capitol Hill. We’ll know soon if the future is what "it used to be," here too.