America’s baby bust may be linked to the iPhone, study says

America's baby bust may have an unlikely culprit: the iPhone. 

A new study suggests Apple's smartphone may account for as much as half of the decline in U.S. birth rates following its 2007 launch, with researchers arguing the device fundamentally changed how young people socialize, date and form relationships.

The working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, entitled, "Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly," says that the iPhone may be the reason for 33% to 52% of the decrease in the general fertility rate among 15–44-year-old women between 2007 and 2011. 

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"Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44," the paper reads. "National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency."

The working paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, said that the general fertility rate for the U.S. has fallen by 22% since 2007.

The iPhone's launch in 2007 created a unique opportunity for researchers to study its impact. From 2007 to 2011, the iPhone was available only through AT&T, so areas with better AT&T coverage got access to the device earlier than areas with little or no coverage.

The working paper found that teen birth rates fell 4.5%–8% because of iPhone diffusion, and birth rates among women 20–24 fell 3.2%–6.6%. 

Time spent with friends dropped 69% among 15- to 19-year-olds, and the working paper also found that searches for "porn" more than doubled over the study period from 2007 to 2011, with the paper stating that "the iPhone provides more access to pornography, which can substitute for partnered sex."

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The paper also suggested that the iPhone "substitutes for in-person interaction, displacing the peer time in which most sexual encounters occur," and also suggested that the device makes information about contraceptive practices and products more readily available. 

"We do not claim that the iPhone is the sole cause of the post-2007 decline, nor that no policy lever can move the trajectory," the paper reads. "But over the 2008–2011 window that our design identifies, our estimates imply that the introduction of the modern smartphone played a sizable role in the decline in U.S. births. The mechanism evidence suggests this operates through the formation of relationships and the time and inclination for partnered intimacy, not the cost of raising children."

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