Is the Phillies’ rotation starting to round into form?
The Phillies could’ve hired any manager under the sun (including Alex Cora), shuffled the lineup however they wanted or played the rest of the season against sub-.500 opponents and they weren’t going anywhere if their rotation didn’t pick things up in a big way.
That’s why the most important development of the last week isn’t Don Mattingly’s 5-1 record as interim manager or the 4.88 runs per game (a relative improvement) they’ve scored since the end of the 10-game losing streak.
It’s the starting rotation appearing to begin to round into form.
Through the end of the losing streak, the Phillies’ rotation was third-worst in baseball with a 5.68 ERA, as well as dead last in hits allowed and 20th in innings.
It wasn’t just Taijuan Walker. Cristopher Sánchez had allowed six runs in his previous outing and had given up the second-most hits in baseball overall. Jesús Luzardo had a 6.91 ERA. Zack Wheeler wasn’t around.
Some — actually, a lot of — positive regression was inevitable. At that same point in the season, the Phillies’ rotation had a league-highest (and historic) .384 BABIP, seventh-best 31.3% hard-hit percentage, fifth-best 15.8% strikeout-to-walk ratio and fourth-highest 14.5% homer-to-fly-ball ratio.
But expected regression is meaningless until it’s proven correct. And, given where the Phillies were — 8-18, already 10 1/2 games out of first place in the NL East, a shocking start giving them a razor-thin margin for error the rest of the way — it needed to happen fast.
It’s trending that way. Since Wheeler returned on the same day the Phillies ended their losing streak, Phillies starters have combined for a 3.47 ERA, which is 10th in baseball. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio has gotten even better, at 19.1% in that span, third in baseball.
Luzardo has led the group, allowing two runs and 10 hits with 18 strikeouts and no walks in his last two starts, spanning 13 1/3 innings. On Tuesday against the Giants, Luzardo became the first Phillie this season to throw seven innings, and at 88 pitches, perhaps he could’ve gone even deeper.
It’s come as he’s heavily cut back on his sinker, something former manager Rob Thomson mentioned in late-April that Luzardo might do. He threw 13 sinkers in 88 pitches on Tuesday, his least-used pitch. He threw just four in 102 pitches on Sunday.
Sánchez nearly delivered the club’s second seven-inning outing two days later, getting pulled at 85 pitches with two outs and the bases empty in the seventh. After stumbling in the first inning, allowing two runs on three hits, he allowed three baserunners the rest of the way.
Wheeler returned from a 253-day absence last Saturday and has looked, well, like Wheeler. He’s allowed three runs and six hits over 11 innings in his two outings, striking out 14. He’s generated 29 whiffs. He’s averaged 94.3 mph on his four-seam fastball, which is predictably down from years past — but two starts in, and after sitting in the low 90s for much of his rehab, it’s quite a positive development.
Even Andrew Painter showed some flashes on Saturday in Miami. He threw five innings of three-run ball, conceding seven hits — but struck out seven, threw a pair of perfect innings and worked out of a one-out, bases-loaded jam.
Not everyone in the rotation is offering a reason to believe they’ve turned a corner. Aaron Nola seemed to be getting there after allowing four runs on 10 hits and 12 strikeouts across his second and third starts of the season, going at least six innings each time. Since then, he’s allowed 14 runs and 21 hits in 14 innings, not pitching into the sixth inning once.
Nola has allowed the hardest contact, highest walk rate, most hits per nine innings and lowest ground ball rate of his career.
He has a chance on Monday in Miami to begin the process of righting the ship. The 6.03 ERA he’s posted so far won’t cut it, but pitching like a competent No. 4 would suffice — especially if Nos. 1-3 are clicking like they just might be.