Democrats Have Pulled Ahead in the Redistricting War. Will Florida Change That?

Florida could this week become the eighth state to redraw its voting map mid-decade, allowing Republicans to reclaim the edge in the nationwide redistricting battle ahead of the fall midterms.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis revealed a redrawn House map on Monday that could give his party an advantage in four districts currently held by Democrats. Florida lawmakers are set to meet and consider the proposed map in Tallahassee during a special legislative session that DeSantis called beginning on Tuesday. 

If the Republican-controlled state legislature approves the new voting lines, it could counter a key victory Democrats scored in Virginia last week, when voters passed a referendum that could add four Democratic seats. The ballot measure, which will amend the state constitution to temporarily allow the Democratic-controlled general assembly to redraw the state’s congressional map, received 51% support from some 3 million voters. The Virginia Supreme Court is now hearing arguments on a challenge to the amendment.

Read more: What the Passage of the Virginia Redistricting Plan Means for Control of Congress

With the win in Virginia, Democrats are poised to gain a slight edge of one or two potential additional seats in the mid-cycle redistricting fight President Donald Trump set off last year as the parties vie for control of the House.

Florida lawmakers, however, could soon change that. Here’s what to know about DeSantis’s plan and how it fits into the broader battle. 

How DeSantis' plan would change Florida's map

Republicans currently occupy 20 of Florida’s 28 House seats. The redrawn map unveiled by DeSantis could allow them to secure an additional four.

Florida’s constitution effectively prohibits partisan redistricting. DeSantis, however, contended to Fox News that the map he has proposed “more fairly represents the makeup of Florida today,” pointing to changes in the state’s population makeup since the 2020 Census and what he characterized as the current voting lines’ “unconstitutional” consideration of race. On the latter point, DeSantis has previously cited, among other things, a case being considered by the Supreme Court regarding the use of race as a factor in redrawing voting maps in Louisiana, though the court has not yet issued a decision in the case.

"Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census, and we’ve been fighting for fair representation ever since," DeSantis told Fox News, which received the proposed map from his office even before state lawmakers. "Our population has since grown dramatically, and we have moved from a Democrat majority to a 1.5 million Republican advantage. Drawing maps based on race, which is reflected in our current congressional districts, is unconstitutional and should be prohibited."

Read more: The Difference Between Gerrymandering and Redistricting, Explained

Republicans hold a majority in both chambers of the state legislature, which is set to vote on the proposed map. If it is approved by legislators, as is widely expected, DeSantis could then sign the redrawn voting lines into law ahead of the midterms. The change would not need to be put before voters like it was in Virginia, but would likely face legal challenges from Democrats and left-leaning groups.

What the change would mean for control of Congress

If the proposed map in Florida is adopted, Republicans could secure a narrow advantage over Democrats in the scramble to redistrict ahead of the November elections. 

Voting maps are traditionally redrawn each decade following the Census account for population changes. But Trump set off a partisan battle to redistrict in the middle of that typical cycle by calling on Republican-led states last summer to redraw their maps in order to create more red-leaning districts and help the party retain control of the House.

Texas, the first state to heed his call, could stand to gain as many as five seats under a new map that Republican Gov. Greg Abbott signed into law in August. In Missouri and North Carolina, successful redistricting efforts could stand to add one additional GOP seat each. And in Ohio, Republicans could gain one or two more under a redistricting plan approved by a state commission. 

Democratic lawmakers in California and Virginia, meanwhile, have pushed through their own redistricting moves to counter the Republican efforts. California could add five additional seats for the party after voters in November approved a measure allowing the state to redraw its House districts. Democrats could flip another four with Virginia’s newly voter-approved map.

And the party could also gain a seat from a redrawn map in deep-red Utah that a judge approved after throwing out one drawn by Republican lawmakers. 

That means that, with the Virginia referendum, Democrats have pulled ahead in the battle by one to two seats. But the redrawn Florida map DeSantis has revealed could put Republicans ahead by two to three.

Even that slim edge could prove significant in the party’s fight to keep control of the House. Heading into the November elections, Republicans have just a razor-thin majority in the lower chamber—and the President’s party typically loses seats in the midterms.