Right Now, Shane Baz Looks More Like a Useful Starter Than a Future Ace

If Orioles fans were hoping Shane Baz would look like a budding ace after Mike Elias acquired him this offseason for four prospects and a draft pick, they may come away disappointed.

That does not mean Baz has been bad, and it does not mean there is not still enough here for him to be a useful major league starter. But if the expectation was that the Orioles landed a clear-cut frontline arm, the early pitch data does not really support that view. What it shows instead is a pitcher whose arsenal looks a little different from last year, but not necessarily better.

Once you strip out the sinker and slider, both of which were minor parts of the mix in their respective seasons, the real comparison comes down to Baz’s four main pitches: the four-seam fastball, knuckle curve, cutter, and changeup. And when you line those up against last year’s version, the overall picture is pretty mixed.

The four-seam is the biggest concern. The velocity is basically unchanged, sitting at 96.9 mph this year after averaging 97.0 mph in 2025, and the shape is still fairly similar. But hitters are doing much more damage against it. Opponents had a .344 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against the four-seamer last year. This year, those marks have climbed to .434 and .357. The whiff rate is nearly the same, which tells you the pitch still has enough life to miss bats, but the location charts suggest the command has backed up. In 2025, Baz’s fastball looked like it was living in a more defined area. This year it looks more scattered and more prone to catching too much of the zone. He does not look wild. He just looks less precise.

The knuckle curve is still an important pitch, but it has not been as effective. Baz has added a little velocity to it, but the pitch has lost some movement and the results have gone the wrong way. Opponents posted a .263 wOBA and .248 xwOBA against it in 2025. This year, those numbers are up to .377 and .303. The whiff rate and put-away rate have both dipped too. What is interesting is that the location does not appear bad. If anything, he may actually be landing it in decent spots below the zone. That points more to the curve simply not having the same finish or bite it had a year ago.

The cutter is the one pitch that stands out in a good way. It looks a little cleaner shape-wise, and more importantly, it has performed much better. Last year hitters had a .410 wOBA against it. This year that number is down to .271, with the xwOBA improving from .343 to .289. The pitch-location maps suggest he is commanding it better too. It looks tighter and more consistent than it did in 2025. Of all Baz’s core pitches, the cutter is the clearest positive development.

Then there is the changeup, which may be the most puzzling pitch in the whole arsenal. The location actually looks better this year, with more of the pitch finishing down and below the zone. But despite that, the results have backed up badly underneath the surface. The actual wOBA allowed is still manageable, but the .519 xwOBA and major drop in whiff rate suggest the pitch is simply not as deceptive or effective as it was last year. That points less to command and more to shape, movement, or how hitters are seeing it.

So what is the bottom line?

Baz still has starter-quality stuff. The velocity is there. The four-pitch mix still gives him enough to compete. But based on the data, it is hard to argue that his 2026 arsenal is better than it was in 2025.

The fastball looks less precisely commanded.

The curveball has backed up some.

The changeup looks worse despite better location.

The cutter is the one real bright spot.

That leaves you with a pitcher whose arsenal still has quality, but whose overall stuff does not appear to have taken a step forward.

At least not yet.