El Niño 2026 Forecast: Strong Event Likely to Shape U.S. Winter Weather

By now, you’ve likely heard that an El Niño event may be developing over the rest of this year, and with high potential to be a strong one by winter. However, you might be wondering why it matters for you specifically—especially when it originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean, thousands of miles from the United States.

The reality is that El Niño has far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, including across North America. When ocean temperatures in the Pacific rise above average, it can disrupt atmospheric circulation, leading to noticeable shifts in precipitation, temperature, and storm activity. These changes often influence everything from winter weather in the U.S. to rainfall patterns worldwide.

Understanding El Niño’s impact on weather and climate is essential because it helps explain—and even improve forecasts of—major climate variations that influence agriculture, water resources, and seasonal weather patterns across the United States.

However, not all El Niño events are the same. Differences in strength, timing, and interaction with other climate patterns—such as the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation—can significantly influence how conditions unfold.

It’s also important to note that a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean more extreme weather. Instead, it increases the probability of experiencing weather patterns that are typically associated with El Niño, such as wetter or drier conditions in certain regions.

For further understanding of El Niño, please visit the National Weather Service.

What is typical of a strong El Niño winter?

The big take-away is the jet stream shifts south. Therefore, the winter storm track favors the southern US, while the northern tier gets less cold air intrusion and moisture.

Below are some key characteristics of a strong El Niño winter:

• With the jet stream positioned further south, more frequent and intense winter storms are directed into California instead of the Pacific Northwest. Southern California in particular often sees above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, mudslides, and landslides.
• Across the southern United States—from California through the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast, including Florida—El Niño usually brings wetter-than-average conditions and cooler temperatures. This pattern can also increase the likelihood of severe weather, heavy rain events, and flooding, especially along the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
• In the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes region, El Niño winters are typically associated with warmer and drier conditions. These regions often experience reduced snowfall and lower mountain snowpack.
• The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions tend to be less predictable during El Niño winters. While milder temperatures and below-average snowfall are common overall, occasional major snowstorms are still possible when atmospheric conditions align.
• For Hawaii, rainfall is often below average during an El Niño winter, and with less frequent Kona storms.

El Niño Summer 2026 Outlook and Hurricane Season Impacts

During the summer months of May through July 2026, El Niño conditions are expected to gradually develop across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Forecast models indicate that El Niño will likely strengthen through the late summer and into the fall, setting the stage for more noticeable impacts later in the year, as outlined above.

However, it’s important to understand that El Niño’s influence during the summer is typically weaker and less consistent compared to its well-known winter effects. Weather patterns across the United States may not show strong or uniform signals during this early phase.

One major exception, though, is the Atlantic hurricane season. Even in its developing stages, El Niño can significantly impact hurricane activity, often leading to reduced storm formation due to increased wind shear over the Atlantic basin. In short, we're anticipating less hurricanes this season in the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean.

Meanwhile, hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific off Mexico is often above normal with less wind shear, warmer ocean waters, and enhanced rising air. For mainland US, these tropical cyclones are rarely a threat for landfall, but the Hawaiian Islands will need to keep a close eye on them.