Gulf worries US-Iran talks may cement Tehran’s grip on Hormuz

A warning by Dmitry Medvedev has heightened concerns among Gulf states that reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be the most negotiations between Iran and the US can achieve, falling short of the broader de-escalation they consider essential.

Officials and analysts expect the next round of talks, due in Islamabad, to focus less on Iran’s missile programme or regional proxies and more on uranium enrichment limits and how to manage Tehran’s leverage over the Strait, the world’s most critical oil shipping route.

Gulf officials warn this approach risks entrenching Iran’s influence over Middle East energy flows by managing rather than removing its leverage, prioritising global economic stability while leaving the most exposed countries outside formal decision-making.

Sources say diplomacy between Iran and the US is now centred less on rolling back missile capabilities and more on enrichment levels, alongside a tacit acceptance of Iran’s ability to influence access through the Strait, which carries around a fifth of global oil supplies.

Although negotiations remain stalled over enrichment, with Iran rejecting both zero enrichment and demands to transfer its stockpiles abroad, Gulf officials say the shift in priorities itself is a cause for concern.

“At the end of the day, Hormuz will be the red line,” one Gulf source close to government circles said. “It wasn’t an issue before. It is now. The goal posts have moved.”

There was no immediate response from Gulf Arab governments to requests for comment.

Iran’s threats to shipping during the conflict have broken long-standing taboos around the Strait, making disruption a realistic negotiating tool for the first time.

Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, underlined this in a post on X on April 8, suggesting the Strait itself functions as a form of strategic leverage.

“It’s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out,” he said. “But one thing is certain, Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It is called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible.”

Iranian security officials privately echo that view, describing the Strait not as a contingency but as a long-prepared instrument of deterrence.

“Iran prepared for years for a scenario involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, planning every step,” a senior Iranian security source said. “Today it is one of Iran’s most effective tools, a form of geographic leverage that serves as a powerful deterrent.”

The source described the Strait as a “golden, invaluable asset rooted in Iran’s geography, one the world cannot take away precisely because it flows from Iran’s location.”

A second Iranian source close to the Revolutionary Guards said the long-standing taboo around using Hormuz had now been broken, describing it as a tool that external powers could no longer ignore.

Analysts say Gulf Arab states are increasingly alarmed that while missiles, drones and proxy forces have repeatedly targeted their region, negotiations are being framed largely around Hormuz due to its global economic importance, sidelining their security concerns.

At the core of the dispute, Gulf sources say, is not control of the Strait itself but who sets the rules governing its use, reflecting a broader shift from established international norms to power-based arrangements.

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi said this imbalance highlights the gap between those shaping outcomes and those facing the consequences.

“What is taking shape today is not a historic settlement,” she said, “but a deliberate engineering of sustainable conflict.”

“Who’s suffering from missiles and proxies? Israel, and specifically the Gulf states. What would be a good deal for us is addressing missiles, proxies and Hormuz. And it seems they don’t care about the missiles or the proxies.”

Analysts warn that such an approach would stabilise tensions at manageable levels rather than resolve them, potentially suiting both Washington and Tehran while leaving Gulf states exposed to ongoing threats.

The conflict, which began on February 28, has already imposed economic costs on Gulf countries, including damage to energy infrastructure, higher insurance premiums and increased export costs. Alternative routes remain more expensive and vulnerable to similar risks.

Diplomats say Gulf officials have urged Washington to avoid full sanctions relief, instead advocating a phased approach to test Iran’s conduct, arguing that core threats such as missile capabilities and proxy forces remain unaddressed.

Across the region, sentiment towards Washington ranges from quiet resentment to growing frustration over what is seen as unilateral decision-making.

Abdulaziz Sager said addressing Iran requires broader coordination.

“The US is part and parcel of regional security,” he said. “But that does not mean acting unilaterally, going full-fledged without involving the region.”

While Gulf leaders express concern about being sidelined, they acknowledge that US military capabilities continue to shape outcomes.

Abdulkhaleq Abdulla said Gulf states had weathered the conflict partly due to their own defences and advanced US-supplied systems such as THAAD and Patriot missile defences.

He added that reliance on a single external power has limits, pointing to what he described as an underestimation of the risk of escalation around Hormuz.

The US has repeatedly committed to defending Gulf allies through air and missile defence cooperation, naval deployments and the protection of critical infrastructure.

However, Mohammed Baharoon said the conflict has underscored the risks of depending on a single security partner.

Gulf leaders have long warned against escalation with Iran but have remained publicly cautious since the conflict began, reflecting both diplomatic restraint and uncertainty over a situation they do not control but must absorb economically and militarily.

As negotiations continue, Gulf officials argue their exclusion is no longer merely a regional concern but a global one, given the central role of the Strait of Hormuz in the world economy.