HabsWorld Predicts: 2026 Playoffs – Round 1, Part 1

The NHL playoffs are a special time of year for hockey fans. Big plays, highlights, controversial moments, and some upsets are always on the ice. On Saturday, the first round begins with three series, and the HabsWorld writers gave their predictions on the first set of the postseason.

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers

Kevin Leveille predicts: Flyers in 7 games
Norm Szcyrek predicts: Flyers in 7 games
Brian Davis predicts: Penguins in 5 games
Richard Roy predicts: Penguins in 5 games
Brian La Rose predicts: Flyers in 7 games

(Kevin) This year’s most unexpected first-round matchup is without a doubt the Battle of Pennsylvania. On one hand, the Penguins were expected to be in the Gavin McKenna sweeps and instead came out strong and never looked back. They are a leaky defensive team but the youth that has been provided around Crosby-Malkin-Letang-Karlsson has allowed them to score their way out of trouble. Their opponents are the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs who play a gritty defensive style with just enough firepower to get it done. While Stuart Skinner is not a name usually identified as a goaltending advantage, I think his experience provides just that over Dan Vladar. I think the Flyers are on fire because Porter Martone has been a spark plug. Can the kid provide that over the course of a series, or will the Pens become wise to his antics? He’s the X-factor for me and I think he puts the Flyers over in this series.

(Norm) A young Philadelphia Flyers team will meet a veteran Pittsburgh Penguins squad in the latest battle of Pennsylvania. Stars like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin had their share of injuries this season, missing significant time. Defenceman Erik Karlsson has been scoring at just under a point per game. The Flyers have zoomed up the standings since the Olympic break, primarily due to strong defensive play. Rookie Porter Martone signed after his college season and has been a point-a-game player with a power forward style. This is another series that is ripe for an upset and I am leaning towards Philadelphia taking it.

(Brian D) I can see this being a mirror of last season’s matchup between the Habs and Capitals. Experience outweighing young talent.

(Richard) This one is easy, I will never bet against Crosby. The Flyers are basically happy to be there and this is all gravy for them. With the urgency to give Crosby another kick at the can and the Flyers playing with house money, this should be a quick one.

(Brian L) Both teams have exceeded expectations this season which isn’t saying much considering that expectations were pretty low for each.  But the Flyers have been one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch and have tweaked their defensive structure, making them much better in that regard.  I expect that to be a difference-maker as the likely ‘Last Dance’ for Pittsburgh’s core will be a short one.

Carolina Hurricanes vs Ottawa Senators

Kevin Leveille predicts: Senators in 7 games
Norm Szcyrek predicts: Senators in 7 games
Brian Davis predicts: Senators in 7 games
Richard Roy predicts: Senators in 6 games
Brian La Rose predicts: Hurricanes in 6 games

(Kevin) The first thought that goes through my mind is that this must be the worst possible draw for the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1. The Sens are an advanced stat darling that just hasn’t received up-to-par goaltending for large stretches of the season. Carolina is a team that tends to throw everything at the net and crash for rebounds. In the case of Ullmark, I feel like that strategy will allow him to feel the puck, get confident, and provide strong goaltending. On paper, this should be Carolina all the way. The goaltending duel is a wash as it’s questionable for both teams; Carolina has a stronger and deeper pool of players on both sides of the puck. And yet I can’t shake the feeling that Ottawa takes this series.

(Norm) Carolina should be the one to emerge from this series. Coach Rob Brind’Amour has never lost in the first round. The old saying, never say never, applies this time. Ottawa finished this season strong and has good underlying numbers to help me predict an upset. Combine that with Carolina’s highly inconsistent goaltending in the playoffs, and you have a series that will go long but against the favourite.

(Brian D) A lot depends on the quality of the goaltending for the Sens, but they are one of the best five-on-five teams and I think they may take advantage of a bit of chippiness to turn them over in a tough series.

(Richard) If there is one team that can stop the aggressive Hurricane system, it’s Ottawa. Their defensive numbers have been among the best in the league all year, they have goal-scoring power, and a meanness that has been historically Carolina’s Achilles’ heel. Ottawa’s Achilles’ heel is in their own net. If Ullmark plays like Ullmark can, they can wind this series.

(Brian L) While this isn’t a great draw for Carolina, they had the top record in the East for a reason.  I question their goaltending in terms of being a viable playoff contender but this core has shown they can win a couple of rounds each year.  While Ottawa is a very strong Wild Card team that could win this without surprising many, I expect the Hurricanes will get through this round.

Western Conference

Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars

Kevin Leveille predicts: Stars in 7 games
Norm Szcyrek predicts: Stars in 6 games
Brian Davis predicts: Wild in 7 games
Richard Roy predicts: Wild in 7 games
Brian La Rose predicts: Stars in 7 games

(Kevin) In the most unfair matchup of the first round, what can be found is a strong case for why this playoff format needed to be dispatched to the garbage after its first season. Gary Bettman is too proud to admit that this format sucks, so here we are instead. The goaltending matchup should favour the Stars, but Jake Oettinger has a spotty playoff history, so it’s hard to properly predict that battle. The offence for both teams is quite capable though I personally prefer the youthful depth of the Stars with Mavrik Bourque and Justin Hryckowian as players who could step up and score meaningful goals in big moments. The headline of this series finds itself on the blue line as both teams feature elite top-end defenders with strong supporting casts. Quinn Hughes vs Miro Heiskanen, Brock Faber vs Thomas Harley, and down the list we go in blue lines that are somewhat similar in how they are built. If everything sticks to hockey, the Stars have the edge; if the Wild can get nasty and get the Stars off their game, they get the edge.

(Norm) Dallas is the favourite and if they get back their top defenceman (Miro Heiskanen) and their two-way centre (Roope Hintz), then that will tip the games their way to the next round. Minnesota will not make it easy for them. Star forward Kirill Kaprizov and defenceman Quinn Hughes will elevate their games and make it difficult. I don’t believe their depth will be enough to counter what the Stars veteran squad will bring, so Dallas will advance.

(Brian D) Both teams will take a lot of lumps out of each other but think the talented Wild could win out. Kaprizov to earn his crazy salary, perhaps?

(Richard) This is the perennial series between two teams that should be the conference semi-finalists but one needs to go early. The addition of Hughes for the Wild will be the difference. Dallas has been going relatively deep for a few years now. Their energy level should be lower.

(Brian L) I’d love to chip in with some hard-hitting analysis but this is the third-best team in the league against the fourth-best team.  It’s a coin flip between the two.  The coin came up with home ice being the difference-maker, even with Hintz being iffy to play this series.  If this ups the public vitriol toward this playoff format and ups the pressure for a much-needed change, even better.