Editorial: North Bay has good reason to balk at metro transit tax plan

There was good reason for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission to hit the brakes on its proposed 2024 regional tax measure.

A recent voter poll confirms the problem that MTC was worried about. Support among North Bay voters, who have strongly supported MTC toll measures in past elections, is weak for a proposed nine-county half-cent sales tax increase.

MTC is now considering putting the proposed 30-year tax on a 2026 ballot.

The proposal drew an average of 44% support from voters from Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano counties.

Among local officials, a top priority is renewing the quarter-cent sales tax that keeps the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit trains running. The tax expires in 2029 and the 2020 measure to extend it for 30 years fell far short of victory.

Marin officials need to make sure that the two measures are not on a collision course, one that could undermine the progress SMART is making in building ridership and community support.

Marin voters have supported Bay Area transportation tax measures in the past.

In 2018, they passed an extension of the Transportation Authority of Marin sales tax that pays for transportation improvements and public transit.

The recent MTC poll showed that North Bay voters agree that more funding is needed to pay for transportation and transit improvements across the Bay Area, but when it came to imposing another tax, they balked.

That reaction dropped the Bay Area-wide level of support to 51% – a far from promising show of support, even if the measure would need only a 50% majority to pass.

MTC’s primary push is raising money needed to support Bay Area Rapid Transit, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency and Caltrain, where ridership has faced lagging ridership since the pandemic.

Those are important regional transit services. Voters understand that. But it is unlikely that they are part of many North Bay riders’ bus or train needs. That’s not enough to persuade a strong majority of North Bay taxpayers – especially those in Marin and Sonoma counties – to increase the sales tax they are paying.

The poll results show that MTC needs to build a stronger case to grow the support across the nine counties.

What are the benefits Marin residents could get from an MTC tax that will raise their bill at local stores and restaurants?

MTC could limit the tax to those south of the North Bay.

Voters have shown they will support tax measures where they see a need and benefit. The closer to their homes the better.

In addition, a half-cent increase for 30 years is a significant ask of voters who have already seen local and regional tax measures boost their sales tax above 9%.

The poll shows – as officials worried in 2024 – to win voter support for a nine-county sales tax proposal is going to be swimming upstream in political waters that are not calm.