Polls show CTP ahead in north

A pair of polls carried out in the north show opposition party the CTP to be ahead and to be the largest party in ‘parliament’ in a hypothetical election.

One, carried out by company Statica, which questioned 1,400 voters in the north, showed the CTP to have 35.7 per cent support, with current largest governing coalition party the UBP in second place on 28.3 per cent.

In the poll, no other party met the five per cent threshold to be elected to ‘parliament’, meaning that in a hypothetical election with such results, the CTP would be able to form a majority ‘government’, likely with 28 seats in ‘parliament’ to the UBP’s 22.

The second poll, carried out by company Piar, which questioned 1,590 people, showed the CTP ahead on 35.4 per cent and the UBP in second place on 30.5 per cent, with two other parties also breaking the five per cent threshold: the YDP on 13.7 per cent and the TDP on 7.6 per cent.

However, while the CTP’s lead in the poll is healthy, such an election result would likely see them remain in opposition, with a ‘parliamentary’ arithmetic working against them.

In a hypothetical election with these results, the CTP would likely win 20 seats in ‘parliament’, while the UBP would win 18, the YDP would win eight, and the TDP would win four.

This would allow the UBP to once again enter a coalition with the YDP, as they currently are, and achieve a ‘parliamentary’ majority of two, with the UBP and the YDP both on the right of Turkish Cypriot politics and the CTP and the TDP both on the left.

At the last ‘parliamentary’ election in the north in January 2022, the UBP were the largest party, winning 39.5 per cent of the vote and 24 seats, the CTP were second with 32 per cent of the vote and 18 seats, the DP were in third with 7.4 per cent of the vote and three seats, the HP were in fourth with 6.7 per cent of the vote and three seats, and the YDP were in fifth with 6.4 per cent of the vote and two seats.

The TDP finished in sixth with 4.4 per cent of the vote, and thus did not win a seat.

Since then, the HP has lost all its seats in ‘parliament’, with leader Kudret Ozersay vacating his seat and the remaining two ‘MPs’ Aysegul Baybars and Jale Refik Rogers leaving the party and now sitting as independents.

The CTP won the by-election to fill Ozersay’s seat, increasing their total number of seats to 19.

The north’s next ‘parliamentary’ election must take place no later than February 2027, but a Turkish Cypriot leadership election is due to take place at some point in 2025.

Statica asked its respondents a question related to that election – “who would you like to see as President of the TRNC and the leader who will represent Turkish Cypriots in the world” – with CTP leader Tufan Erhurman the most popular answer, put forward by 42.6 per cent of participants. 30.2 per cent of participants answered incumbent Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar.

Piar did not ask an equivalent question.