CNN data guru says Biden's historically bleak reelection odds may have prompted early debate
Joe Biden talks on the phone, Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2024, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House photo by Adam Schultz)
Jason Cohen
Daily Caller News Foundation
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Thursday that President Joe Biden agreeing to an early debate with former President Donald Trump may be due to a historical trend suggesting poor reelection odds for the incumbent.
Trump is beating Biden by 1.1% nationwide, according to the RealClearPolitics average, and a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found the former president leading by 13% among likely voters in Nevada, 9% in Georgia and 6% in Arizona. Incumbents heading into presidential debates while polling behind their competitor have historically lost reelection, which may be the reason for Biden deciding to debate significantly earlier than usual, Enten said on “CNN News Central.”
“I think he wants to sort of upset the apple cart here because incumbents trailing going into the first debate, look at this. Jerry Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in ’80 George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Donald Trump, of course, in 2020. What do all four of these have in common besides being good looking men? They all lost reelection,” Enten said. “So Joe Biden is trying to say, wait a minute, I look at this history, I don’t like this history, I want to change it up a little bit. Maybe if I can get the debates going earlier, maybe if I have a good debate all of a sudden I can change the polling, because at this point, Joe Biden needs something to change. Because if it doesn’t, he’s going to end up like these four men on the screen.”
WATCH:
Biden challenged Trump on Wednesday to two televised debates, proposing a slew of conditions that included no live audience and microphones getting cut off during the other candidate’s speaking time. Both candidates subsequently accepted CNN’s offer for a June 27 debate.
Enten said on Monday that Trump’s lead in the sun belt states of Nevada, Georgia and Arizona is disastrous for Biden’s reelection chances.
“These sun belt battleground states, frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster,” he said. “The smallest lead is in Arizona for Donald Trump, he’s up six. Look at this, nine in Georgia, 13 in Nevada. My goodness, gracious, my god. That is a hugely — no Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004.”
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