Opinion: Plan B if Mets Miss On Yamamoto

Plan B for Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Yeah, you read that correctly.

The Mets are currently in the middle of an all-out arms race for Japanese Starter Yamamoto. As it stands right now, the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets are at the forefront, while teams such as the Reds Sox, Phillies, and Giants are following in the rearview mirror.

While the Mets can offer the most money, and most likely will, it’s reported the Dodgers and Yankees have the upper hand. It’s hard to beat playing with Shohei Ohtani or playing in the navy pinstripes.

Still, while it’s no fun to think about backup options before Yamamoto signs, it’s a conversation that needs to be had. The Mets have a high chance to sign the 25-year-old, but could find themselves in a situation where they miss out on their top free agent this offseason.

On the chance they miss on Yamamoto, the free agent list is long and fruitful. There are plenty of names on the list that are mid-tier starters and could fill out the bottom of the 2024 rotation.

In fact, even if the Mets win the Yamamoto sweepstakes, David Stearns will likely add another starter. After signing Luis Severino earlier this offseason, David Stearns stated the Mets would add at least one more arm to the rotation.

Regardless of the outcome, it’s best to be prepared for the worst in life. Below I’ve outlined starters the Mets should target if they miss out on Yamamoto.

Jordan Montgomery 

Pivoting to Jordan Montgomery is probably what most Mets fans want. And I tend to lean toward him as well.

Montgomery has quietly been an above-average talent in the majors throughout his career. Since 2021, he has averaged a 3.48 ERA, 121 ERA+, and 3.62 FIP in 524 1/3 innings.

With those great numbers also comes postseason experience. Montgomery is coming off a 2023 World Series run with the Rangers, where he pitched seven shutout innings in the American League Wild Card round and registered a 1.29 ERA in two ALCS starts.

Due to his success in the regular season and playoffs, Montgomery won’t come cheap. According to Will Sammon of the Athletic, Montgomery is looking for a hefty contract following his age-30 season and is using Carlos Rodón‘s contract as a baseline.

This is where the crossroads for Montgomery hits. He’s consistently good and reliable, but asking for a contract fit for an ace. Sure the Mets have the money, but overpaying for Montgomery isn’t a necessity.

Plus, in Sammon’s article mentioned earlier, he stated the Mets reportedly won’t pivot to Blake Snell or Montgomery out of impulse. If the price point comes down, I’m all in.

Lucas Giolito 

Lucas Giolito is another Severino-esq project the Mets should pounce on.

Giolito blossomed into a high-end starter after being traded to the White Sox in 2017. He registered a 3.86 ERA and 112 ERA+ from 2019-2022, along with making an All-Star appearance in 2019.

Giolito continued that success into the first half of 2023 as well. He pitched to a 3.79 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox and struck out 131 batters in 121 innings.

With Giolito having another solid season and the White Sox plummeting in the standings, Chicago opted to trade their No. 2 starter to the Angels. Once being moved, Giolito’s season derailed.

He pitched to a 6.89 ERA in six starts with the Angels, going 1-5, and eventually was DFA’d once the Angels also fell out of postseason contention. Giolito got another chance with the postseason-hopeful Guardians, but also struggled there, registering a 7.04 ERA in six more starts.

While his second half of 2023 was less than desirable, Giolito is a project that could benefit the Mets. His track record from 2019-2022 is proven and an offseason in the Mets’ pitching lab could return him to form.

Plus, even if the product is mediocre, Giolito is a proven innings eater. He’s made at least 29 starts in every season since 2018 and the Mets rotation needs innings.

Shōta Imanaga

Another intriguing option out of Japan is Shōta Imanaga.

Imanaga’s profile is very different from Yamamoto’s. The left-hander is 30 years old and utilizes his command to get batters out. Imanaga’s plus pitch is his change-up, which he uses to keep batters off balance from his fastball.

The fastball Imanaga features sits at 92 miles per hour but has topped out at 96. The fastball and changeup are Imanaga’s bread and butter, along with his curveball and slider that he mixes in throughout his outings.

With his four pitches, Imanaga has been a premier pitcher in Nippon Professional Baseball. He holds a career 2.96 ERA in eight seasons and is coming off another impressive 2023, where he registered a 2.80 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, and 10.6 SO/9 in 148 innings.

Imanaga is truly an enticing pitcher. And he’s going to come cheap. The 30-year-old is currently projected to receive a five-year, $85 million contract by MLBTradeRumors and is also listed as their tenth-best free agent heading into 2024.

The value is certainly there. The projected contract by MLBTradeRumors would set Imanaga at an AAV of $17 million, matching pitchers such as Taijuan Walker, José Berríos, and Jameson Taillon.

If the Mets miss out on Yamamoto, then Imanaga would be a great pivot. He’s cheap, talented, and fits a rotation that desperately needs innings.

2024-25 Offseason

Another option, and the most realistic for the Mets, is to wait for the next offseason.

The 2024-25 free agent market for starters is filled with imposing names. Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, John Means, and Charlie Morton are at the top of next offseason’s list, along with many other mid-tier starters.

If the Mets miss on Yamamoto, there’s no need to overpay for a No. 3 or even No. 2 starter for 2024. Next offseason’s pick of the crop is much better, and Steve Cohen should absolutely keep the payroll clear for one or two of these names next offseason.

And as it stands right now, the Mets can afford two top starters next season. Spotrac has the Mets tax payroll for 2025 at $146.06 million, leaving the Mets $94.93 million under the luxury tax threshold.

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