House prices are still very high – so hold off on buying as the US economy will keep struggling, Yale economist Robert Shiller says
Michelle McLoughlin/Reuters
- US house prices still look very high, according to Yale economist Robert Shiller.
- "Maybe if you have a good chance to delay your purchase, it might be a good time to do so," he told CNBC.
- Shiller added that he's expecting the US economy's struggles to continue for the next six months.
US house prices still look very high – so potential buyers should consider delaying their purchase for another six months with the economy's struggles likely to continue, according to Robert Shiller.
"It's easy to forecast the short-run in the housing market, if you're a long-term buyer it's not clear," the Yale economist told CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" Monday. "Home prices are very, very high by historical standards."
"I would extrapolate the downturn somewhat – it's going to continue," he added. "Maybe if you have a good chance to delay your purchase, it might be a good time to do it."
"It might get a little cheaper after another six months."
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, which is based on Shiller's own analysis of US housing with fellow economist Karl Case, shows that home prices fell six months in a row between July and the last available reading from December.
Rising interest rates have helped fuel the housing slowdown. The Federal Reserve has lifted borrowing costs from near-zero to around 5% over the past year – and that's pushed national average 30-year mortgage rates to just below 7%, according to Bankrate data.
But Shiller believes that there's at least six months of declines left to come, based on his view that key policymakers will eventually accept a recession that helps to drag down prices.
When there's an economic downturn, unemployment is likely to go up – and that reduces the number of Americans who can afford houses and stops landlords from raising rents.
"That's the capitalist system with a central bank," Shiller told CNBC. "I think it works pretty well most of the time and I wouldn't tinker too much with it."
"We have smart people on the Fed and the Treasury Secretary I admire, Janet Yellen," he added. "They may have to accept something of a recession."
The latest edition of the Case-Shiller Index, set to be released at 9am Eastern Time Tuesday, will show the extent to which US house prices rose or fell in January 2023.