Hurricane warning issued for Cuban provinces ahead of Ian
LAFAYETTE, La. (KLFY) - Tropical Storm Ian continues to further develop while heading westward across the Caribbean.
As of the 4am advisory, Ian has winds of 50 mph, making it a tropical storm. The NHC forecast cone shows Tropical Storm Ian moving westward and strengthening in the Caribbean Sea through the next 24-48 hours. The good news is that the long-term forecast path is well east of Louisiana. Cuba and Florida will be on high alert early next week. Ian could be a Major Hurricane as it makes landfall, as the National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a category four hurricane. Rapidly strengthening is expected today and tomorrow as wind shear has died down, the system has gotten more vertically stacked, and will also move over some of the most heat energy-rich waters in the basin through the next 24-48 hours.
Tropical model plots are in great agreement on the path of Ian. Models are zeroing in on the Big Bend of Florida although there are still subtle differences. The GFS model has been further west, moving into the Panhandle by Friday. The European model is further east, making landfall earlier (on Wednesday) and taking the storm into the west coast of Florida.
The EURO Model has been the most consistent with this system, so my weight currently goes to the European. If the GFS model run verifies, most of the Florida peninsula will be spared from the more serious impacts, putting the Florida Panhandle in the path. If the European model verifies, effects will be wide-ranging as Ian will crawl up the west coast of Florida, causing tropical storm conditions up-and-down the peninsula.
We'll continue to monitor these changes and the latest models over the next few days.
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