Мобильный 1 Add news
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010June 2010July 2010
August 2010
September 2010October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011March 2011April 2011May 2011June 2011July 2011August 2011September 2011October 2011November 2011December 2011January 2012February 2012March 2012April 2012May 2012June 2012July 2012August 2012September 2012October 2012November 2012December 2012January 2013February 2013March 2013April 2013May 2013June 2013July 2013August 2013September 2013October 2013November 2013December 2013January 2014February 2014March 2014April 2014May 2014June 2014July 2014August 2014September 2014October 2014November 2014December 2014January 2015February 2015March 2015April 2015May 2015June 2015July 2015August 2015September 2015October 2015November 2015December 2015January 2016February 2016March 2016April 2016May 2016June 2016July 2016August 2016September 2016October 2016November 2016December 2016January 2017February 2017March 2017April 2017May 2017June 2017July 2017August 2017September 2017October 2017November 2017December 2017January 2018February 2018March 2018April 2018May 2018June 2018July 2018August 2018September 2018October 2018November 2018December 2018January 2019February 2019March 2019April 2019May 2019June 2019July 2019August 2019September 2019October 2019November 2019December 2019January 2020February 2020March 2020April 2020May 2020June 2020July 2020August 2020September 2020October 2020November 2020December 2020January 2021February 2021March 2021April 2021May 2021June 2021July 2021August 2021September 2021October 2021November 2021December 2021January 2022February 2022March 2022April 2022May 2022June 2022July 2022August 2022
1234567891011121314151617
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
News Every Day |

Vinnie Pasquantino is not Ryan O’Hearn

Vinnie Pasquantino swings away
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

The Italian Nightmare captured many hearts in Omaha though he’s had a slow start in KC. But that isn’t the end of the story.

This is not an article to bag on Ryan O'Hearn. From all appearances, he's a perfectly good dude. He has not publicly complained about his reduced playing time in KC, even as his role was reduced to pinch-hitting and then reduced to nearly-permanent pine resident. By all accounts, he has made every effort to be available to the team in whatever capacity they have requested. I want nothing more than for him to figure out how to find the success he enjoyed after being promoted in 2018, even if it has to be with another team.

Still, O'Hearn has become something of a bogeyman for Royals fans over the past few years. He was promoted, had immediate success, and became nearly unplayably bad overnight. The seemingly is added there because the Royals spent the next three years playing him as often as they could, trying to help him rekindle the spark of his rookie debut. Following a slew of other failed first base prospects, from Ken Harvey to Kila Kaʻaihue to even the polarizing Eric Hosmer O'Hearn's tale has become about how the Royals have become so desperate they'll allow a failed prospect to haunt their lineup for years at a time.

There are, as ever, no guarantees in life. Baseball, as the old cliche goes, is a game of failure. Vinnie Pasquantino could turn out to be one of those AAAA guys the Royals have specialized in producing over the years.

BUT.

There's no particular reason to expect that outcome beyond the usual caveats. In fact, there are a lot of reasons to think that Pasquantino might be the really real deal. Before we get too deep into that, let's talk about the headline. You can find the raw numbers I used to create the comparisons at the excellent FanGraphs.

Vinnie Pasquantino and Ryan O'Hearn's minor league careers are very different

It's easy to think that Pasquantino and O'Hearn have much in common. They're both big, left-handed-hitting first-basemen who were drafted in the middle rounds by the Royals. But there are a lot of differences between them from there. You can often tell a lot about how likely a prospect is to succeed by how old he is when he debuts, how quickly he advances through the minors, and what kinds of stats he was putting up as he progressed. Bobby Witt Jr. debuted at age 22 after spending only three seasons in the minor leagues, and it's reasonable to wonder if he might have spent less had there not been a pandemic in 2020. He put up good numbers all along the way. This matches the expectation that he would be outstanding, and after a rough start, he's been quite good for KC.

O'Hearn debuted at age 24, still a decent prospect age though not as impressive as Witt's. However, O'Hearn spent most of five years in the minors before getting the call. That's not a death knell for a career, but it's significant. It's been said that Witt has a slow start at every new level he reaches, but his slow starts were always short-lived. O'Hearn, on the other hand, regularly started slow after a promotion and only improved when he repeated that level the following season. Additionally, by the time he reached AAA, his numbers were below average for the league. He repeated the level in 2018, and the numbers got worse somehow. The Royals promoted him because they needed a first baseman and because his exit velocities were allegedly outstanding, but the results definitely weren't there.

Meanwhile, Pasquantino also debuted at age 24 but was only in his fourth year in the minors (and was promoted earlier in the season than O'Hearn, too.) Pasquantino never did anything but hit, either. While O'Hearn had a higher high with a 191 wRC+ in 22 games in A+ at age 22, he had a much lower low with an 87 wRC+ before he was promoted in 2018. (It followed a 99 wRC+ he accumulated after being promoted to AAA in 2017) Pasquantino's wRC+ for a level never dipped below the 145 he was putting up in AAA before his promotion this season. The same thing we said about Witt spending less time in the minors without a pandemic earlier also applies to Pasquantino, though perhaps not as strongly.

Directly comparing their numbers in the minors also shows some pretty stark discrepancies. Pasquantino regularly walked and struck out far less than O'Hearn at every level. His strikeout numbers actually improved with each promotion, while O'Hearn's took the more standard path and got worse. Vinnie also hit the ball on the ground about 10% less often and had better ISO numbers to show for it. Finally, Vinnie's BABIP numbers were much lower than O'Hearn's. This, combined with the groundball numbers, suggests that Pasquantino's successes relied less on luck than O'Hearn's. It's also probably worth noting that nearly all of Pasquantino's minor league career came post-shift explosion while O'Hearn's mainly came before it. That means Pasquantino is used to finding success despite a second-baseman playing in shallow right field, whereas O'Hearn has had to adjust to that defensive alignment.

All this to say, if Pasquantino ends up failing as a major league hitter, it won't be because he was just like O'Hearn.

Fun with numbers

We've established who Pasquantino isn't, but it might be fun to see who he is like. That's where the always-fun Baseball Savant can help us out. All of these rankings are for all batters with at least 50 batted ball events because Pasquantino only managed to get 58 before the All-Star Break. It's a small sample size, so you might not want to read too much into it, but a small sample size pointing to good things is still better than the alternative.

The thing you probably know but haven't classified in depth is that Vinnie hits the ball hard. The most basic comparison I like when checking Baseball Savant is batting stats vs expected stats. Vinnie's actual stats are all far below his expected stats because he hits the ball so hard. This includes a full 80-point difference between his weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Expected wOBA (xwOBA).

So that tells you he's been a bit unlucky, but what could we expect if that weren't the case? Well, only three batters in all of MLB have a higher average exit velocity: Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton. Vinnie's average exit velocity of 95 MPH puts him ahead of literally every other batter with at least 50 batted balls. Vinnie is even ahead of Stanton when you check on the percentage of balls hit over 95 MPH.

Perhaps the most impressive stat, though, is that absolutely nobody hits the ball hard as often per swing as Vinnie has since he was called up. He does so 28.2% of the time. Let me say that again: more than a quarter of Vinnie's swings - not batted balls, but swings - end up being hard contact. When he swings, good things happen. For reference, the next closest is Yordan Alvarez at 24.5%. His eight barrels tie him at 244th out of 418 batters with at least 50 batted ball events. For comparison, Whit Merrifield has had nearly six times as many batted balls and achieved only five additional barrels.

After all that, you might recall that O'Hearn was known for hitting the ball hard when he came up in 2018. So here's just a little bit more comparison. O'Hearn's average exit velocity by the end of his debut was 91.4 MPH in 102 BBEs, a significant drop-off. Additionally, his .woba was .398 with an xwOBA of .343. Compare that to Vinnie's .299 and .412, respectively. Ryan's hard-hit percentage was 44.2% compared to Vinnie's 60.3%. Ryan swung and missed twice as often as Vinnie in their respective debuts. Ryan's success was also accompanied by a sudden, unexplained drop-off in groundballs, while Vinnie is currently hitting more than normal.

None of this guarantees that Vinnie will have a long successful career. He might still turn out to be a dud. The major league track record is still a tiny sample size, and all the good news is the process-over-results sort. But if you forced me to wager, I'd be more willing to bet that Vinnie Pasquantino has a great career than a bad one. And even if it does turn out bad, it won't be because he is the same as Ryan O'Hearn.









Read also

Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics live stream, TV channel, start time, odds | August 17

Target drops after the retailer's quarterly earnings plunge 89% in offloading piled-up inventory

Dubai airport gears up to handle World Cup supporters


Прямой эфир РБК. Главные новости России и мира сегодня (Прямой эфир ежедневно)

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Tennis' biggest stars are desperate to play Serena Williams before she retires

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Tennis' biggest stars are desperate to play Serena Williams before she retires



Sports today


Новости тенниса
Аслан Карацев

Аслан Карацев уступил Диего Шварцману во втором круге соревнований в Цинциннати



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Для прогулок на свежем воздухе: на территории больницы им. Филатова появились детские и спортивные площадки


Загрузка...

All sports news today




Загрузка...

Sports in Russia today

Москва

Определился победитель соревнований по спортивной рыбалке по направлению «юг»


Новости России

Game News

God save us: Tony the Tiger and his milk-cooled PC come to Twitch


Russian.city


Game News

Детали механик фансервисного файтинга JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: All-Star Battle R


Губернаторы России
Подмосковье

На региональных трассах в Подмосковье заменили 180 остановочных павильонов


Сотни событий, тысячи людей, миллионы возможностей: В Крыму стартовал фестиваль «Таврида.АРТ»

Позвоночник, не боли! Новое оборудование больницы в Коммунарке позволит эффективнее лечить пациентов

Расписание электричек на участке Москва — Конаково изменится 18 августа

Что с сайтом 123ru.net (нас читают и публикуются у нас). Уже более 70 млн. просмотров в мире.


Музыкант Бутман: Подмосковье — лучшая площадка для фестиваля «Джазовые сезоны»

Анастасия Решетова, Анна Нетребко и зловещие лица на платьях: 8 образов недели по версии редактора моды

Как и зачем Александр Розенбаум выступил в далеком алтайском селе

Стало известно, зачем могилу Юрия Шатунова накрыли огромной бетонной плитой


Касаткина потеряла место в первой тройке чемпионской гонки WTA

Вице-президент ФТР Селиваненко отреагировал на перепалку Медведева с болельщиком

Серена Уильямс взяла у Эммы Радукану четыре гейма в первом раунде турнира в Цинциннати

Монреаль (ATP). Расписание седьмого игрового дня



Большой смысл маленького мультика: в «Артеке» пройдёт фестиваль «Аниматика»

Продюсер Вадим Антонов выводит на новый уровень Одинцовский медиахолдинг. 

Вкусно будет всем: шеф-повар НКО «СОЮЗСОЦПИТ» Григорий Мосин разрабатывает новые блюда для школьников и делится опытом с регионами

Игорь Маковский открыл VIII Коллегию «Россети Центр» и «Россети Центр и Приволжье» в Москве


Кубок России- 2022/2023 отправляется в путь

Что с сайтом 123ru.net (нас читают и публикуются у нас). Уже более 70 млн. просмотров в мире.

Победа с четвёртой попытки: гандбольный Кубок Лаврова остался у ставропольского «Виктора»

На региональных трассах в Подмосковье заменили 180 остановочных павильонов


Черевченко назвал слухами информацию о назначении на пост главного тренера «Торпедо»

Маркетплейс Ozon открыл новый склад в Подмосковье вместе сгоревшего в Истре

Воробьев: Трасса ЮЛА в 2026 г станет частью транспортной системы на юго‑востоке региона

Взрыв газа произошел в жилом доме в Красногорске — источник



Путин в России и мире







Персональные новости
Russian.city

Юрий Шатунов

Стало известно, зачем могилу Юрия Шатунова накрыли огромной бетонной плитой



News Every Day

UFC San Diego: Cruz vs. Vera live results, discussion, PBP




Friends of Today24


Загрузка...
Музыкальные новости
"Воскресенье " Олег Митяев



Персональные новости
Близкий друг Путина миллиардер Пугачев. Вся правда о Путине, его семье и деньгах. В гостях у Гордона (2021)

Навальный об уволенном за пост священнике (2021)

Slava Marlow – суперуспех и депрессия в 21 год / вДудь (2021)

Обнаглевшие дети путинской элиты (2021)

Дайте собакам мяса (новый звук) -Владимир Высоцкий

Группа "Рождество" - песня "Так хочется жить!" (Видео с концерта в Киеве группы "РОЖДЕСТВО" в 2011 году в Доме офицеров)

Adriano Celentano Любимая песня Челентано (высочайшая энергетика) talentTV


Moscow.media