How Russia could sleepwalk into ‘Vietnam War’ in Ukraine invasion facing kill zones, guerrillas & US special forces
RUSSIA could sleepwalk into a Vietnam-style war in Ukraine where it faces fierce resistance by guerrilla fighters backed by US special forces.
Vladimir Putin has massed 100,000 troops massed on the border with Ukraine but its neighbour hopes any invasion will see Kremlin forces sucked into killing zones in a long and bloody conflict.
Fears have been mounting that Putin could order his forces to launch what he hopes would be lighting strike for a quick victory over Ukraine.
But behind the scenes, several hundred US Green Beret special forces have been working with the Ukrainians to ensure Russia faces a bloodbath in the country.
The CIA has also been working on secret training that has taught the Ukrainians how “to kill Russians”, a former agency official has said.
And Ukrainian forces are already being equipped with anti-tank weapons by the UK which guerrilla forces would use to create killing zones for massed Russian armoured forces.
Despite being initially overrun by the sheer number of Russian forces, it’s now widely believed the “fiercely nationalistic” Ukrainians plan to keep fighting.
Defence analyst Colonel Richard Kemp and told The Sun Online the prospect of Russia becoming embroiled in a Vietnam-style a war is “definitely a possibility”.
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“It would need assistance in the form weaponry and intelligence from the United States, the UK and other countries,” said Col Kemp, who commanded UK forces in Afghanistan.
“If Russian forces occupy Ukraine, then they need to pay a price for it but that’s not going to come from Nato forces coming in an ejecting them.
“The only option that the Ukrainian people have for defending their sovereignty is that type of warfare. That’s going to cost a lot of lives on both sides.”
Senior serving and former US military leaders have warned the Russians they face an insurgency similar to the one they faced during their 10 year occupation of Afghanistan.
Former US assistant Defense Secretary Lawrence Korb said he recently went to Russia to warn them about invading Ukraine, based on the US experience in Vietnam.
Writing in The National Interest he said that “during my time in Moscow, it became clear to me that the Ukrainian military would not be overrun by the Russians as they were in 2014”.
BATTLE HARDENED
Given reports that Ukraine was preparing to resist Russia using guerrilla tactics it was “likely that its efforts would turn out similarly to the United States experience in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan”.
Rob Clarke, Defence Policy Associate at the Henry Jackson Society, told The Sun Online there will “100 per cent” be a guerrilla war backed by the US if Russia invades.
He said the possibility of such a conflict stems from “just how nationalistic and proud the Ukrainians are”.
He said Ukrainian reserve forces, made up of civilians, have been training for exactly such an outcome.
“The Ukrainian conventional forces will quickly be overwhelmed within a matter of weeks and then it’s the civilians and reserves who will fight and the will is there,” he said.
“There will be guerrilla resistance given how proud and nationalistic the Ukrainians are.
“You can expect large CIA funding for a guerrilla war. There will also be American forces on the ground assisting the Ukrainians though not actually fighting.
“There are already several hundred US special forces in Ukraine training and advising the military”.
He said “any invasion will be short, swift and incredibly bloody” and Putin’s aim “will probably try to go as far as the capital Kiev for regime change and the return to a pro-Russian leader”.
But while there will be a bloody guerrilla conflict, he believes it’s unlikely to drag on.
BLOODY GUERRILLA CAMPAIGN
“Putin wants a short sharp invasion to get concessions out of the West. Anything longer than March and April is going to be incredibly costly for him politically.
“The one thing Putin cares about is his own survival and that rests on the armed forces.
“If he draws them into a bloody guerrilla campaign that’s going to lose him the support of the Russian armed forces incredibly quickly.”
Ukraine’s former defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said his country’s forces a “battle hardened” after eight years of fighting Russia.
Polls have shown one in three Ukrainians have said they’re prepared to take up arms, he wrote for the Atlantic Council.
Combat veterans, reservists, special forces and “large number of volunteers” will allow Ukraine to create “thousands of highly mobile groups” to attack the Russians.
‘EXTRAORDINARILY STUPID’
“This will make it virtually impossible for the Kremlin to establish any kind of administration over occupied areas or secure its lines of supply,” he said.
The UK’s armed forces minister James Heappey has warned a war could be “days away” said Putin needs to be aware it will be costly for him.
“This is a war in which tens of thousands of people are going to die and if Putin is being briefed in Moscow that this can be bloodless he’s being lied to,” he told the BBC.
“I think there is a grave possibility that he may and I think that it would be an extraordinarily stupid thing to do.”
Speaking on LBC later, he feared Putin could be tempted into an invasion without fully thinking through the consequences.
“I think there is a grave possibility that he may and I think that it would be an extraordinarily stupid thing to do,” he said.
“There’s absolutely no chance, as I fear Putin might believe, that the Ukrainians are ready to welcome him as their liberator.
“I was in Kiev last week and what I saw was a proud, sovereign nation facing an existential threat and knowing to the very core of their being that they will fight every inch.”