The Week Ahead

CBN’s 139th MPC meeting is to hold in the week ahead

The Central Bank of Nigeria‘s (CBN) quarterly MPC meeting is set to hold on the 21st-22nd of November 2021. The National Bureau of Statistics last week released data on Nigeria’s real GDP growth and Inflation. The release of the two lagging macroeconomic indicators sets the tone for deliberations at the forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Real GDP grew by +4.03% in the third quarter largely on the back of a 49.65% contribution from the services sector, where financial and insurance services recovering from a -2.48% contraction in Q2, to grow y-o-y by +23.23%.

Notably, Oil production dropped from 1.61mbpd in Q2 to1.57mbpd in the third quarter, resulting in a -10.56% decline in the output from the Mining Sector. Although, still being supported by the low base effect, the growth figures as well as those of Inflation which declined in October by 63basis points to 15.99% would disincline the MPC from altering its centrist stance.

NUPENG’s ultimatum spurs fuel scarcity scare in the week ahead

With NUPENG’s 14 day ultimatum to the Federal Government closing in and the chances of a Nationwide strike draws near, scares off a looming fuel scarcity fills the air in the week ahead.

Recall that NUPENG said it would call out its members on a nationwide industrial action if some legitimate welfare and membership-related issues were not conclusively addressed by the Federal government at the end of the 14 day period.

Read also: How CBN’s intervention saved power sector from collapse over liquidity crisis, by Experts

The union in the statement said the decision was reached during a special national delegates conference convened last Thursday, for reasons ranging from non-payment of workers’ salaries, title benefits, among other issues.

The union said despite the fact that these issues have been tabled before different government agencies/institutions and they have been resolved, the decisions remain unimplemented while their members keep suffering in excruciating jeopardy.

The Union’s statement read, “We write to convey to the public and all relevant government agencies the resolution of the Special National Delegates Conference to issue a 14-day notice of a nationwide industrial action if some legitimate welfare and membership related issues that have been variously resolved in our favour even by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment are not adequately and conclusively addressed and resolved within the next fourteen days.

“This ultimatum takes effect from Monday 15th November 2021.’’

Motorists and Automobile owners Nationwide should ensure that their gas tanks are filled to avoid any gas/fuel related inconveniences in the week ahead.

NBS RELEASE CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

The NBS release calendar for the coming week indicates the following:

· Friday 26th November 2021: Nigerian Capital Importation (Q3 2021)

Oil prices rise on the back of investors’ concerns

Oil prices rose on Friday, after wild swings the day before, on investor concerns that potential coordinated releases by the world’s major economies of their official crude reserves to try to lower prices may have less of an impact than expected.

Crude oil prices however fell on Monday, under pressure from expectations of increasing supplies and a lower demand forecast amid higher energy costs.

A source at Morocco’s ONHYM has confirmed to S&P Global Platts that the government of Morocco is considering setting up a downstream division of the state-owned ONHYM to manage domestic natural gas infrastructure, which includes a project to deliver gas by pipeline from Nigeria to Morocco through 13 countries.

The COP26 climate change summit ended with a not too significant deal due to pressure from major coal consumers. The conference ended with the Glasgow Climate Pact, which includes stipulations for reducing subsidies for oil and gas, the phasing-down of coal consumption, and stipulation on increasing financial support for developing country Parties beyond the $100 billion per year of the Paris Agreement. Brent had a weekly decline of -5.09%

In the coming week, oil prices are expected to be bearish on the resurgent pandemic in Europe.

Currency Market

The Naira started the previous week on a quiet note, closing flat against the US dollar for most of the trading session at the I & E FX window.

The Naira closed at N414.10/US$ on Friday, indicating a week-on-week (W-on-W) appreciation of the Naira. At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) window it also depreciated by -0.17%.

More of the same is expected in the week ahead as the Naira is anticipated to continue to hover around N410/$1-N415/$1 threshold in the NAFEX window.

Money Market

System liquidity was relatively elevated for most of last week, but rates traded at double-digit trend.

At the close of the trading on Friday, open buy-back (OBB) and overnight rates (O/N) settled at 19.00% and 20.00% respectively indicating a W-o-W rise of +31.03% and +31.15% for OBB and O/N.

We expect rates to hover around current levels barring any inflows from the Apex bank in the week ahead.

Treasury Bills Market

The treasury bills market started the previous week on a quiet note, but activity picked up later into the mid-week.

At the close of trading on Friday, the market was bullish with selling interest seen across all maturities. Average benchmark yield for T. Bills fell by -1.62%, yields on OMO bills fell by -2.48% while yields on CBN’s special bills dipped by -1.02%

We expect activity next week to be dictated by the market liquidity situation.

FGN BOND and EUROBOND market

The local bond market sustained a mixed sentiment last week, with most of the selling concentrated at the mid-end of the curve.

At the close of trading on Friday, the market closed on a mixed note. Overall average benchmark yields closed at 8.44% indicating a W-on-W rise of +1.53%.

The Eurobond market started the week on a relatively bullish note, as attractive yield levels trigger some interests which were not sustained throughout the week.

At the close of trading on Friday, average benchmark yields settled at 6.69% indicating a W-on-W increase of +1.36%.

Market sentiment is expected to be mixed as inflation concerns dampen.

Nigerian Capital Market

Activity on the local bourse last week was bearish with sell pressure seen across several stocks. The NGXASI dipped by -0.12%. Investors lost N28.05bn, year-to-date return moderated to +7.27%, while the market capitalization settled at N22.54trillion.

The volume of shares traded on the exchange last week dipped by -5.37% while the values of shares advanced by 33.17%.

Sectoral performance across sectors tracked was bearish last week as all sectors closed negative. NGX-IND, NGX Insurance, NGX Consumer Goods, NGX Banking, and NGX Oil & Gas closed negative with -0.10%, -0.47%, -1.41% and, -1.60% and -3.63% respectively.

Market breadth for the week closed negative with 15 gainers led by VITAFOAM and ETRANZACT as against 49 losers led by CUTIX and NGXGROUP.

In the coming week, we expect the possibility of bargain hunting as investors look to take advantage of the result season. However, press releases from listed companies and other macroeconomic developments are also likely to impact investors’ decisions.

In addition, we expect investors to monitor the movement of yields in the fixed income market.