3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/19/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we’ll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Christian Wood Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110)
numberFire’s algorithm is leaning pretty heavily over on this posted prop, as it projects Christian Wood for 10.0 rebounds against the Miami Heat tonight.
The Heat rank 26th in rebounding rate over the past 15 games, pulling in 48.0% of available rebounds (96.0% of the NBA average). They are also 24th in rebounds per 48 minutes allowed to opposing power forwards on the season — and dead last over the past 10 games.
Wood is averaging 0.29 rebounds per minute this season, and numberFire projects him for 35.1 minutes. Over that span, he should gather 10.2 rebounds at his full-season rate.
Wood’s rebounding rate skyrockets (get it? Rockets?) to 0.34 against bottom-10 rebounding teams this season. At 35.1 minutes, that’d get him to 11.9 rebounds.
Bradley Beal Over 4.5 Assists (-104)
numberFire is projecting Bradley Beal for 5.0 assists against the Oklahoma City Thunder over 35.3 minutes, which works out to 0.14 per minute. Beal’s full-season rate is 0.13, so that checks out.
The Thunder are 21st in assists allowed per game to opposing shooting guards over the past 10 games and are just league-average in assists per 100 possessions allowed. Assists allowed can be noisy, but the sample is large now, and it can help indicate how defenses allow opponents to score.
Beal averages 4.5 assists per game in 41 contests with Russell Westbrook and 4.7 assists per game in 36 games with an over/under of at least 231.0.
We’re getting solid odds for Beal to get to five helpers against a reeling defense with a high over/under.
Markieff Morris Under 1.5 Made Threes (+122)
A plus-money prop is always welcomed, and even though there isn’t a ton of wiggle room on this prop, I think it makes sense.
The Utah Jazz do a better job than any team at defending the three-point arc: just 34.2% of opposing field goal attempts against them are from beyond the three-point line. The NBA average is 39.3%, so they allow 87.0% as many threes-per-attempt as the average team.
numberFire projects Markieff Morris for 29.1 minutes, and he averages 0.18 three-point attempts per minute, shooting 35.0% on them.
Adjusting everything for those numbers, he’s rating out right around 1.5 makes. However, this is where the plus money comes into play and makes the under a better option on a coin-flip bet than the over.