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NHL Betting Guide for April 2nd

Rejoice! We are heading into a weekend full of hockey action. The games start tonight at 7 pm ET and will be on for nearly every waking hour until Sunday night. Let’s roll!

Here are the plays from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames Spread, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Oilers -144, Flames +122

Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+172), Flames +1.5 (-210)

Total: o5.5 -148

Odds to Stanley Cup: Oilers +2000|Flames +6000

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames News, Analysis, and Picks

At the start of this week, the Edmonton Oilers Friday night contest against the Calgary Flames was a bit of a tough spot. But since then, their game against the Vancouver Canucks was postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the Canucks. That makes managing their goaltending decisions a lot more simple.

Now that they don’t have to worry about saving Mike Smith for the second night of the back-to-back, he should start against the Flames. Smith is having a year; he’s stopped 91.9% of shots and has won 12 of 16 starts. His advanced metrics are even more inspired; Smith is on pace for his best goals-saved-above-average since he set the league-high mark in 2011-12, and he has a high-danger save percentage of 85.4%.

Those metrics will help extinguish what little offensive firepower the Flames can muster. The Flames are scoring on only 7.5% of shots since Darryl Sutter took the team’s reins. Their production got a boost following the coaching change, as is typically the case when a new coach is brought in, but they are heading in the opposite direction now. Calgary has attempted an average of just 8.0 high-danger chances and 23.0 scoring opportunities over their last seven games.

During that seven-game span, the Flames have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% on only three occasions. Jacob Markstrom is doing them no favors right now either, as he’s allowing goals on 87.0% of shots over his last six starts. The Oilers are among the best teams on home ice and should have no problem exposing Markstrom, as they have on multiple occasions already this season.

The Oilers are priced as short home favorites, but their metrics support that they are better positioned than the Flames tonight. Let’s back the Oilers on the moneyline.

The Bet: Oilers moneyline (-144)

New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals Spread, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Devils +134, Capitals -156

Spread: Devils +1.5 (-210), Capitals -1.5 (+172)

Total: o6.5 +112

Odds to Stanley Cup: Devils +25000|Capitals +1200

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!

New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals News, Analysis, and Picks

The Washington Capitals have been working against their metrics for quite some time, and it’s finally catching up with them. Tonight is the night where we take a stance against them as they travel to New Jersey to play the Devils on the second night of a back-to-back.

Washington got man-handled by the New York Islanders on Thursday night, losing 8-4 and putting up an expected goals-for percentage of 40.6%. It’s the second game in a row where they posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% and the third straight game in which they allowed at least four goals. That fallout is to be expected.

You see, the Capitals went on an 11 game streak in which they posted a 1.077 PDO and won 10 of 11 games. Relative to advanced metrics, they overachieved by a substantial margin. They did out-pace their opponents in expected goals-for in seven of those games, but on a game-by-game basis, a lot of those game scores were a near coin-flip proposition.

After seeing where they came from, it should be less surprising that they followed up with consecutive sub-par performances. That’s a trend we should expect to continue as the Caps regress towards the mean.

The Devils have been more competitive recently. Mackenzie Blackwood has posted an above-average save percentage in four of six, and New Jersey is backing him up with a few more goals by scoring on 9.3% of their shots during that span. Blackwood’s play has helped the Devils win four of his last six starts.

The Caps have overachieved relative to the metrics and are a team that we can sell high on. The Devils are playing better hockey recently, but their price tag doesn’t reflect that. We are taking the Devils as +136. We’re expecting the Caps to have a bounce-back defensive effort tonight and Mackenzie Blackwood to sustain his increased metrics, resulting in a low-scoring game.

The Bets: Devils moneyline (+136), Under 6.5 (-140)

The post NHL Betting Guide for April 2nd first appeared on SportsGrid.

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