Add news
March 2010
April 2010
May 2010June 2010July 2010
August 2010
September 2010October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011March 2011April 2011May 2011June 2011July 2011August 2011September 2011October 2011November 2011December 2011January 2012February 2012March 2012April 2012May 2012June 2012July 2012August 2012September 2012October 2012November 2012December 2012January 2013February 2013March 2013April 2013May 2013June 2013July 2013August 2013September 2013October 2013November 2013December 2013January 2014February 2014March 2014April 2014May 2014June 2014July 2014August 2014September 2014October 2014November 2014December 2014January 2015February 2015March 2015April 2015May 2015June 2015July 2015August 2015September 2015October 2015November 2015December 2015January 2016February 2016March 2016April 2016May 2016June 2016July 2016August 2016September 2016October 2016November 2016December 2016January 2017February 2017March 2017April 2017May 2017June 2017July 2017August 2017September 2017October 2017November 2017December 2017January 2018February 2018March 2018April 2018May 2018June 2018July 2018August 2018September 2018October 2018November 2018December 2018January 2019February 2019March 2019April 2019May 2019June 2019July 2019August 2019September 2019October 2019November 2019December 2019January 2020February 2020March 2020April 2020May 2020June 2020July 2020August 2020September 2020October 2020
News Every Day |

What the electoral college will look like in 2020 if state polls are as wrong as 2016

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (L) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (R) attend a ceremony to unveil a portrait honoring retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. December 8, 2016.  REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
FILE PHOTO: Biden and Clinton attend a ceremony to unveil a portrait honoring retiring Reid on Capitol Hill in Washington
  • While Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was heavily favored to win the presidential election in 2016, election results surprised many pollsters when now-President Donald Trump emerged victorious.
  • Numerous circumstances led to erroneous state polling in 2016, including undervaluing non-college educated voters and vast amounts of undecided voters.
  • A report from the New York Times examines what the outcome of the electoral college will be this November if state polling proves to be as incorrect as it was in 2016. The report shows Joe Biden defeating President Trump, but just barely.
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The results of the 2016 presidential election were a shock to pollsters and experts around the country: How could the polls and predictions be so wrong? In fact, the New York Times famously had Hillary Clinton's chances of defeating now-President Donald Trump at 91% just three weeks before the election.

As of Sept. 29 with 35 days until the election, the New York Times released a followup of what the electoral college could look like in 2020 if the same mistakes were made by newspapers and pollsters alike.

 

The mistakes from 2016 include:

  1. Surveys in 2016 did not properly weight the value of non-college educated voters.
  2. Large amounts of undecided voters, which experts had difficulty predicting, who ultimately sided with Trump.
  3. Many polls and predictions came before the release of the Comey letter and after the infamous "Access Hollywood" tapes where Trump bragged about grabbing women "by the p---y."

According to the New York Times, if all polling translates perfectly into votes (which the Times notes realistically will not happen), then Biden will receive 359 electoral votes — much more than the 270 necessary to win the presidential election. 

However, if the same mistakes are made in 2020 as were made in 2016, Biden would only receive 280 electoral votes, or 22% less than current polling would suggest; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the election.

Have pollsters and experts learned from 2016? It's unclear.

FiveThirtyEight recently said that presidential primary polls in 2020 had a weighted average error of 10.2 percentage points — about the same as the 2016 presidential primaries. The same FiveThirtyEight report also noted that in the final 21 days of the election in all races since 1998 that ended in 6-10 point margins — the approximate lead that Biden currently holds with less than 35 days to go — polls have been right 84% of the time.

Pollsters and experts alike have adjusted their models since 2016, but as FiveThirtyEight points out, the closer and the tighter the race is the higher the likelihood of an upset or results which differ from polls.

As the New York Times suggests, "there's no reason the polls couldn't be off by even more than they were four years ago."

Read the original article on Business Insider


Read also

US Election: Early votes hit 69.6m, half of 2016 total ballots

Who is Oscar Pistorius and when did he kill Reeva Steenkamp?

Justin Turner tested positive for COVID-19 during Dodgers’ World Series win



News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro




Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here