News Every Day | 29 March 2020, 23:50

Mandatory Lockdown In Moscow After Russian Capital Records More Than 1,000 COVID-19 Cases

A cleaner wearing protective gear carries out the disinfection of benches in a park as a measure against the coronavirus in Moscow. © Sputnik / Anton Denisov

Moscow (official population – over 13 million, estimated up to 18 million) was put on the mandatory lockdown after over 1,000 COVID-19 cases had been recorded in the Russian capital. From March 30, residents of the city will be only allowed to leave their homes in cases of absolute necessity.

Under the new rules, people can go outside if they need urgent medical help or to purchase food or medicine (at nearest stores). They can also throw out trash and pet owners will be permitted to walk animals, inside a radius of 100 metres from their buildings. The decree was issued by Mayor Sergey Sobyanin on March 29. it applies to all age groups.

Despite the strick measures, people still can continue to go to work, and enter or leave the capital. The surrounding Moscow region (population – 7.5 million) have introduced similar restrictions.

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Moscow authorities a “smart control system,” to be introduced “in the coming days,” after which residents won’t be allowed to leave their homes without permits. Russia is one of the countries that have almost been not affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Nonetheless, the Russian government is acting like the COVID-19 pandemic poses a major threat and imposes various security measures. In some cases, the implementaion of these measures take an ugly form damaging interests of the society and local businesses.

Furthermore, the confirmed deat toll from the COVID-19 in Russia provides some interesting trend:

90 yo man, Moscow. He was suffering from chronic cerebral ischemia, encephalopathy and parkinsonism;
69 yo woman, Moscow;
57 yo man , Orenburg. He had a chronic pathology;
73 yo man, St. Petersburg. He returned from Thailand on March 1. He suffered from numerous chronic diseases, including coronary heart disease and chronic heart failure. died of an acute heart failure.
56 yo woman, Moscow. She did not have one lung after a cancer. Upon admission to the hospital, a left-sided pneumonia was confirmed.
70 yo woman, Moscow. She suffered from diabetes for 20 years, had a terminal renal failure and other diseases
88 yo man, Moscow. There were concomitant pathologies.
73 yo man Moscow. There were concomitant pathologies.

This goes fully in the framework of facts observed in Italy where the outbreak hit mostly people over 50 years of age. According to open data, over 74% of people infected with the COVID-19 was over 50 years old. Only about 25% of infected people are in the age between 19 and 50.

The most affected area in the country’s North. For example as of March 28, there were over 39,000 COVID-19 cases and 5,944 COVID-19-linked daths in Lombardy.

These numbers can be compared with the “Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season” (source):

Influenza activity in the United States during the 2018–2019 season began to increase in November and remained at high levels for several weeks during January–February. Influenza A viruses were the predominant circulating viruses last year. While influenza A(H1N1pdm09) viruses predominated from October 2018 – mid February 2019, influenza A(H3N2) viruses were more commonly reported starting in late February 2019. Influenza B viruses were not commonly reported among circulating viruses during the 2018–2019 season. The season had moderate severity based on levels of outpatient influenza-like illness, hospitalizations rates, and proportions of pneumonia and influenza-associated deaths.

CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness⁶.

Peak activity during the 2018–2019 influenza season was classified as having moderate severity across ages in the population. Compared with the 2017–2018 season , which was classified as high severity, the overall rates and burden of influenza were much lower during the 2018–2019 season (Table 2). Among children, however, rates of influenza during the 2018–2019 season were similar to the 2017–2018 season. In addition, the 2018–2019 season had two waves of activity, including a wave predominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses and another wave of similar magnitude attributable to influenza A(H3N2) viruses⁵. The dual waves resulted in a protracted season during 2018–2019 that was less severe when compared with peak activity in 2017–2018, but resulted in a similar burden of illness in children by the end of the season.

During the 2018–2019 season, 136 deaths in children with laboratory–confirmed influenza virus infection were reported in the United States⁸. However, influenza-associated pediatric deaths are likely under-reported as not all children whose death was related to an influenza virus infection may have been tested for influenza. By combining data on hospitalization rates, influenza testing practices, and the frequency of death in and out of the hospital from death certificates, we estimate that there were approximately 480 deaths associated with influenza in children during 2018–2019.

Our estimates of hospitalizations and mortality associated with the 2018–2019 influenza season continue to demonstrate how serious influenza virus infection can be. We estimate, overall, there were 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 season. More than 46,000 hospitalizations occurred in children (aged <18 years); however, 57% of hospitalizations occurred in older adults aged ≥65 years. Older adults also accounted for 75% of influenza-associated deaths, highlighting that older adults are particularly vulnerable to severe outcomes resulting from an influenza virus infection. An estimated 8,100 deaths occurred among working age adults (aged 18–64 years), an age group that often has low influenza vaccination uptake.