The Hitchhiker’s Guide to what happens next on Capitol Hill

The midterms are over. But even more pitched battles are underway.

These are internal House and Senate leadership elections. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., won’t pursue the minority leader post.

President Trump doesn’t always see eye-to-eye with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., but the president hasn’t demanded a change there.

Some incoming House and Senate progressives have expressed their reservations about House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., despite the stunning Democratic wins from Tuesday night.

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Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed, D-Mich., has long warned he might not support Schumer for Majority Leader.

"If you’re Chuck Schumer, I’m dangerous," El-Sayed advised in late June.

The Michigan Democrat ducked the question when asked about supporting Schumer on NBC just after the election.

"I am going to vote for the option that gives me the best chance of getting money out of politics. Putting money in pockets and passing Medicare for all," said El-Sayed. "I'm interested to see, working with the rest of our caucus, what options we've got."

By Thursday on CNN, El-Sayed was reiterating his support for Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., who hasn’t announced he’s running for anything.

"I think he'd be an amazing Senate majority leader," said El-Sayed of Van Hollen.

But even other newcomers weren’t committing to Schumer.

"No, I will not (support Schumer)," Sen.-elect Adam Hamilton, D-Kan., said on Fox before the election. "And I've already said I'm not going to vote (for him)."

"I think it's really clear that both parties are ready for a new generation of leadership," Sen.-elect Annie Andrews, D-S.C., told colleague Bret Baier.

"I told Sen. Schumer that I'm going to support somebody else," offered Sen.-elect Troy Jackson, D-Maine.

But Schumer is shrugging that off.

"I'll be re-elected as majority leader," Schumer said when asked by reporters on Wednesday. "But the issue is focusing on the American people and what they want."

Schumer only needs around 29 of his members to support him in a secret caucus vote to become majority leader. That’s a majority of expected Senate Democrats who will serve next year.

At least five members of the Democratic Socialists of America are pledging to withhold their support for Jeffries as the first Black House speaker in U.S. history unless they secure commitments for their agenda. The successful candidate for speaker requires an outright majority of the entire House — 218 votes of 435, if all Representatives-elect cast ballots — when the new Congress convenes Jan. 3.

Keep in mind that House Democrats may score more than 260 seats once all races are settled. So, he can afford dozens of defections.

For House Republicans, Johnson may have signaled his future last month when speaking to colleague Aishah Hasnie.

"If God moves on our hearts and says we should go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I'll do that," said Johnson.

Now it’s far from certain that Johnson will soon channel Groundskeeper Willie from the Simpsons. But perhaps becoming "The Lawnmower Man" is a better option for Johnson than getting mowed down by your own colleagues in a bid for minority leader.

Maybe the grass IS greener back in Louisiana.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, are running to become the House’s top Republican. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., wants to return as minority whip. He’s facing a challenge from Rep. August Pfluger, R-Texas.

But here’s the trick. How do these House Republicans win the leadership positions yet maintain their own coalitions? It’s unclear if Republicans think that Jordan and Scalise are right for the party — right now. Both are aligned with President Trump. And some Republicans hope to move past that.

Regardless, Democrats campaigned on two things: the cost of living and holding the Trump administration accountable. But what does the Democrats’ legislative agenda look like? 

This isn’t like 1994, when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., famously crafted the 10-point Contract with America as a pledge to voters as to what Republicans would do if they flipped the House for the first time in 40 years.

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Democrats have a host of ideas on what they plan to vote on.

"We have to first get in there and really focus on rolling back the cuts from the one big ugly bill," Sen.-elect Juliana Stratton, D-Ill., promised on CNN.

Also expect votes on renewing expired Obamacare subsidies. Democrats demanded money to offset the costs of rising premiums in exchange for their votes to fund the government. The House finally passed a bill to do that. But the Senate didn’t. The standoff over the Obamacare aid was the key component to last year’s record-breaking, 43-day government shutdown.

"The shutdown sharpened the American people's view of the distinction between the parties on this crucial issue," Schumer said.

Democrats are also focused on a key issue from the midterms: the future of AI and data centers. They’re concerned that AI threatens American jobs.

"This revolt against data centers are just the initial tremors of a bigger AI earthquake that is upending American politics," said Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, chairman of the Progressive Caucus. "And we have to be on the right side of this issue."

There will undoubtedly be votes to end the war in Iran — perhaps by cutting off money for those operations. The House approved three "war powers" resolutions. The Senate green-lighted one. But those machinations did nothing to hem in the president on the war.

Democrats believe that ending the war will reduce gas prices. And that, in turn, will lower the cost of groceries.

Congressional Republicans balked at unwinding tariffs imposed by President Trump. So, there could be votes on that front, too. Democrats believe the election shifted the dynamic of Republicans aligning behind the President in near lockstep.

"This is the time for (Republicans) to show the courage to end this irrational and self-defeating tariff regime that Trump has put in place," said Rep. Greg Stanton, D-Ariz. 

"Most of them realize that the tariffs from a fiscal and economic perspective are completely self-defeating."

However, some Republicans aren’t ready to abandon the old playbook, clinging to the GOP’s hallmark legislative achievement of this Congress.

"I think the tax cuts and the Big, Beautiful Bill were underappreciated by the electorate," Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., proffered.

President Trump signaled he’ll both work with Democrats and deploy his veto pen. But it’s about the math. When all House races are settled, Democrats could control more than 260 House seats. 

That’s astonishing. 

They’re guaranteed 54 Senate seats with Mississippi and Alaska still undecided

It’s about the math. Overriding a veto requires two-thirds of both bodies. That’s 290 in the House and 67 in the Senate. If Democrats hover around 260 seats in the House — and Republicans are ready to ditch the president — hitting the 290 mark isn’t out of reach. 

If Democrats clock in at 56 seats in the Senate, cobbling together 11 GOP votes to reach 67 might be tougher. Especially with GOP Trump antagonists like former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and senators John Cornyn, R-Texas; Bill Cassidy, R-La.; and Thom Tillis, R-N.C., departing. But they’re in range.

It all hinges on what Democrats can pass. And what the president is willing to sign.