SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: A red retreat for Republicans is not the same as a blue wave in 2026
With less than one week until the midterms, many have projected that Democrats could win in a 2018-style "blue wave," when they won 41 House seats, due to their almost 9-point lead in the generic congressional ballot and a national environment that has tilted drastically in their favor.
That is the wrong term for what is occurring.
Indeed, what we are looking at now is a red retreat, a red collapse, and a potential red defeat, not an overwhelming victory for Democrats or their policies.
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Make no mistake, to the extent that we can determine the eventual outcome, Democrats are almost certain to take the House and have nearly a two-thirds chance to take the Senate.
Democratic candidates are ahead or tied in virtually all of the battleground Senate races – North Carolina, Michigan, and Maine among them – while there are signs of a red retreat in typically safe states like Kansas, Texas, and even possibly Alaska.
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At the same time, early voting numbers favor Democrats, as does the enthusiasm gap, which shows Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.
This has shown up in primaries as well. In the twenty-two states that held competitive primaries this year, seventeen saw increases in Democratic voter turnout. In Texas alone, whereas in 2022, Republicans cast 900,000 more votes than Democrats, this year, Democrats cast 150,000 more – a 1.5 million vote swing.
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Likewise, President Trump’s approval, averaging just 38%, is contributing to growing pessimism. When asked whether the country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction, 32% now say the country is headed in the right direction, versus 63% who say it is on the wrong track, a net-negative 31 points.
In March 2025, that was just under a net-negative 9 points, underscoring the decline that has occurred and just how much Americans have soured on this administration.
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To be sure, if a red retreat turns into a red collapse, Democrats will win the Senate.
However, the data also make clear that the shift in national sentiment can, in no way, be read as an endorsement of Democrats’ policies, to the extent that they have offered an agenda.
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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came closest in the New York Times last weekend, outlining priorities on costs, health care, and checking the administration. But that was more a case against Republican rule than a governing blueprint with broad public support.
Indeed, if Democrats win the Senate, it will primarily be a product of frustration with the administration, inflation, and the war in Iran – not because voters endorse a sweeping Democratic agenda.
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Currently, just under 40% of Americans have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. That is statistically tied with President Trump as well as the Republican Party.
Democrats should therefore resist treating victory as a license to move sharply left. Troy Jackson (Maine), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan), and James Talarico (Texas) are running in different states and may win for different reasons, but no faction can claim ownership of the national result.
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The test will be whether Democrats turn public anger into a disciplined agenda: lowering costs, restoring stability, checking executive overreach, and attracting support beyond their base. If, instead, they spend two years relitigating ideological fights, their majority will be short-lived.
In fact, in a recent ABC survey, democratic socialism was deeply unpopular, with ratings bordering on Trump’s. Less than 4 in 10 (37%) of Americans had a favorable view, while 59% did not.
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In that same vein, even Democratic voters are not sold. When asked whether they prefer the Democratic Party to move further to the political center or the political left, 48% of Democrats preferred the center, versus 27% who preferred moving to the left, according to New York Times polling.
Among independents, arguably the most critical bloc, the findings are even more stark. More than 7 in 10 (72 percent) of independents want Democrats to move to the center, whereas just 11% want the party to go further left.
Even if Democrats do sweep both chambers of Congress, they will have won on a rejection of Trump and Republican governance – not a blank check to govern from the left. Victory would create an opportunity to provide competent, practical leadership, not a mandate.
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All of this will matter for Democrats because the 2028 elections will unofficially start next Wednesday.
Democrats still lack a single recognized leader and remain divided between the far left and establishment wings, and the midterms will not resolve that fight. Their immediate task is proving they can govern competently, appeal to independents, and improve Americans' daily lives.
Ultimately, these midterms will be a referendum on President Trump and Republicans. Voters will cast their ballots with gas prices, mortgage rates, and other costs foremost in their minds, not with what it means for 2028.
A red retreat may deliver Democrats power. But if they mistake backlash for ideological conversion, they will squander the opening. Governing from the pragmatic center-left – focused on affordability, stability, and results – is how they rebuild trust.
Carly Cooperman is CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research.