The red wall facing its biggest threat in decades as Republicans scramble to defend Texas

DALLAS — Democrats see a rare opening in Texas, and James Talarico is giving them their clearest shot in years at turning one of the state's two Senate seats blue. If he pulls off the upset, the former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian could knock the first brick loose in Texas’ red wall.

The polling and fundraising figures help explain why Democrats see that possibility.

To put it in perspective, Talarico’s polling leads are wider than those recorded against Ted Cruz in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke came closer than any Democrat in decades to winning a Texas Senate race. And the enthusiasm on the ground from those who spoke with Fox News Digital backs up the numbers.

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What's more, Talarico’s campaign raised $64 million from July through September, more than three times Trump-backed candidate Ken Paxton’s $18 million haul over the same period. Since launching his campaign, Talarico has raised more than $146 million.

But Paxton, currently the state's attorney general, has enjoyed Republican outside groups pouring more than $200 million into Texas to support him, nearly all of it bankrolled by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. Additionally, MAGA Inc., President Donald Trump’s principal super PAC, has spent another $33.7 million on ads backing Paxton, according to AdImpact.

At his Dallas rally on Thursday, Talarico underscored that divide by casting the race as a David and Goliath fight, telling supporters they were his weapon against powerful interests.

"David wasn’t as big or as strong as Goliath. He didn’t have as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith, and he had a slingshot," he said. "Dallas, you are my slingshot. The people of Texas are my slingshot."

Talarico's momentum has also shown up on the campaign trail.

Earlier this week, Talarico hopscotched across Texas, stopping in El Paso before holding events in Midland and Amarillo and drawing a larger-than-expected crowd in deep-red Lubbock on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Trump campaigned with Paxton about four miles away that same night, shifting his rally time so it overlapped with Talarico’s event.

The dueling rallies put the race’s divide on display. Talarico’s campaign said more than 4,000 people signed up for his Lubbock rally, prompting a move to a larger venue.

"I know that we’re not the only show in town tonight, and I appreciate all 4,000 of you that showed up here this evening," Talarico said at the Fiesta Center in Lubbock on Oct. 27. "That’s a lot of Talafreakos in one room."

The Democratic candidate and his supporters have embraced the moniker "Talafreako," a nickname first given to him as a derogatory dig by Republicans and President Trump.

Voters at Talarico’s rallies in Lubbock told Fox News Digital that Trump’s repeated Texas visits signaled Republican anxiety, while Paxton backers remained confident the state would stay red after a costly and contentious primary that saw Republicans divided over Paxton and sitting Sen. John Cornyn, who was ultimately ousted in the May runoff.

"Trump’s in Lubbock? Trump’s in Lubbock, Texas? He’s scared, he is scared," one supporter told Fox News Digital.

Natalie, from Friona, called Trump’s same-day rally a sign Republicans were "nervous."

"I think it’s performative, like to come the exact same day as he is here," she said.

Jenny, from Brownsville, told Fox News Digital outside Trump and Paxton's rally that the race was "not close" and she predicted that "Paxton will wipe the floor" with Talarico.

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Beyond the rally crowds, some Talarico supporters in Dallas and Lubbock said Paxton’s past legal controversies and impeachment by the Texas House shaped their views of the Republican nominee.

"We’re here in support of honesty, decency and integrity," Lori, a Dallas voter who has voted Republican in the past, told Fox News Digital. "That’s what we like to see in a candidate, and we think Talarico is all that in one."

George, a lifelong Texan at the Dallas rally, said years of watching Texas politics had become "heartbreaking" and called Talarico "a breath of fresh air."

In Lubbock, Georgia cited several of Talarico’s policies and called him "authentic." She also said his lack of an indictment was a plus, contrasting him with Paxton.

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Elias, a nurse from Lubbock, said Paxton’s past controversies and impeachment by the Texas House reflected poorly on the Republican nominee.

"I think it shows that Paxton is a weak leader," Elias told Fox News Digital. "He had a chance to kind of redeem himself despite his ugly past, but he’s not a man, he can’t stand up for himself. He needs daddy Trump to come and support him."

With Election Day on Nov. 3, the question is whether Talarico can turn rally crowds and a polling lead into a historic win. A victory would crack the GOP’s decades-long grip on Texas. A loss would leave Democrats still searching for a path to turn the state blue.