Roll The Tape: Goff Is Built To Beat Minnesota; Why McCarthy Is Thriving In New York
The Seahawks reminded why they have the best defense in football. The Lions have an ideal quarterback to spoil the Vikings' perfect record. The Giants might have a new starting quarterback.
Each week, I dive into the All-22 coaches' film before offering a few insights to watch. Here are three developments that could be long-term storylines involving some of the best teams and players in the NFL.
Whenever a defense gets to face a former teammate who has teased and tormented them in practices for years, the unit can’t wait to spot the ball and shut down their ex to earn bragging rights. With star running back Kenneth Walker III returning to Seattle to face the league’s top defense in prime time this past week, the football world couldn’t wait to see how the "Dark Side" would treat K9 in his homecoming.
Walker, of course, didn't enter the matchup as merely the reigning Super Bowl MVP. He was the NFL’s rushing leader after averaging a whopping 133 yards per game while forcing 51 missed tackles through five games. The fifth-year pro was picking up 9.2 yards per carry when not hit behind the line of scrimmage, which led the NFL by over a full yard (minimum 25 carries). However, the Seahawks are a sure-tackling team, with a 90.1% tackling rate (third-highest) and hit running backs in the backfield on 48.5% of their carries, with 22.7% of those hits resulting in a tackle for loss or no gain.
A long, hard look at the tape from this Week 7 showdown revealed a lot about the Seahawks. Namely, they boast the best defense in football. Defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald has installed a scheme that lets his playmakers play fast, but from various spots and alignments. As a proponent of positionless football, the Seahawks run five and six defensive backs on the field at all times, and their clever use of Nickel and Dime personnel, regardless of the offensive grouping, speaks to the unit's versatility, with defensive backs deployed as quasi-linebackers on blitzes.
Against Kansas City, Seattle didn’t stray from that approach, playing five or more defensive backs on 100% of the snaps. With Macdonald keeping his defensive backs deep to eliminate explosives through the air, the Seahawks impressively kept Walker in check without loading the box. They finished with a 7.1% stacked-box rate, per Next Gen Stats, while holding the Chiefs to 4.3 yards per play and limiting Walker to just 36 rushing yards total. The stellar performance snapped Walker’s 11-game streak with at least 50 yards and offered a blueprint for containing the NFL’s top rusher.
Studying the All-22 coaches’ footage, the Seahawks contained the Super Bowl MVP with a high school-like game plan featured on Friday nights across the country. The defense stayed in a traditional two-deep zone or single-high safety coverage with five defensive backs on the field. They overwhelmed the Chiefs at the point of attack with interior size and outran Walker to the corner, with a speedy collection of linebackers and defensive backs running the ball with urgency. Seattle's outstanding effort and flawless tackling stopped Walker in his tracks and disrupted the rhythm of an offense that has dictated its terms to opponents with a balanced but explosive attack.
Although Macdonald added some tricks and gimmicks throughout the game, the Seahawks simply overwhelmed the Chiefs with their talent, toughness and tenacity. If they continue to play to their standard, the defending champs will have a lot to say about which team represents the NFC in Super Bowl LXI.
Under aggressive defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Minnesota Vikings have lived and died by the blitz. But the blitz-heavy tactician’s diabolical methods will be tested Sunday against Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions in America's Game of the Week (1 p.m. ET on FOX).
The Vikings enter Week 8 with the highest blitz rate in the NFL, coming off a game in which they registered the highest blitz rate in a single game (85.2%) in the Next Gen Stats era. Flores has pummeled quarterbacks into submission with an exotic pressure scheme that taxes the mind, body and soul. His unit relentlessly stresses opponents with five- and six-man pressures, complemented by simulated blitzes that radically change the picture for quarterbacks, with only four defenders rushing and seven falling back into coverage.
Flores' psychotic, high-pressure approach has turned the Vikings into a defensive juggernaut, and the football world is buzzing. In studying the All-22 coaches’ footage from the Vikings’ 16-10 win in Week 7 over the Colts, persistent pressure and constant harassment forced Daniel Jones into one of the worst performances of his career (he completed 13 of 22 passes for 108 yards and an interception), as Minnesota scratched out its sixth win with minimal contributions from the offense.
Although Jones wilted under pressure, the Vikings will face an unflappable quarterback this weekend in Goff. The former No. 1 overall pick has become comfortable amid chaos, as shown by his remarkable numbers against the blitz. He enters Week 8 with a higher completion percentage (70% to 66%), passer rating (123.3 to 107.5) and yards per attempt (8.2 to 7.9) when blitzed compared to coverage. He surgically carves up defenses when under pressure, whether blitzes come up the middle or off the edges to disrupt his rhythm. Goff’s poise and pinpoint accuracy let him punish opponents for risky approaches.
Against the Vikings, Goff must be prepared for "all-out" blitzes with everyone attacking the pocket from "mug" alignments (both linebackers positioned in the gap between the center and guard). An ultra-aggressive blitz from a hyper-aggressive alignment sets the tone for the rest of the game because it immediately speeds up the clock for the QB, forcing him to face his fear of a physical beatdown. Additionally, constant pre-snap movement and post-snap trickery can lead to countless mistakes and blunders from newbies and veterans alike. Moreover, it creates a scary-movie effect, making Flores the "Boogeyman" everyone fears around this time of year.
Given his experience against Flores and his high-pressure scheme, Goff has a chance to crack the code on a defensive scheme that has quarterbacks and playcallers up late at night.
Before you laugh at the thought of Minnesota castoff J.J. McCarthy becoming a permanent QB1 for his new squad, consider how the former first-rounder has quickly adapted to the Giants’ culture and energized an offense that suddenly looks competent under his direction.
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised by his early success after connecting with John Harbaugh, who likely received operating instructions from his brother on how to maximize the young quarterback’s talent. It was just a few years ago, after all, that McCarthy led Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Wolverines to a 28-1 record and a national championship while running an old-school offense that bludgeoned opponents with a hard-hitting running game and a complementary aerial attack.
Although skeptics questioned whether McCarthy could carry an offense as a designated playmaker, Jim Harbaugh advocated for him, calling McCarthy the "best quarterback" in the 2024 class during league meetings and after Michigan’s Pro Day. Harbaugh praised McCarthy's arm talent, intangibles and competitiveness, and highlighted his exceptional command of the Wolverines’ offense.
In New York, McCarthy has been as good as advertised despite his struggles with the Vikings. The underrated dual-threat has energized the Giants’ offense with his playmaking potential, adding an explosive element to an offense that needed a shot of energy. Despite playing less than a quarter of Week 6, McCarthy connected on five passes for at least 20 yards. That tied a career-high. After adding another five such completions in Week 7 — he trails only Caleb Williams (11) in the entire league over the past two weeks — it is time for the football world to reconsider its opinion of the polarizing passer.
John Harbaugh’s tough love and blue-collar environment, combined with offensive coordinator Matt Nagy’s experience with young quarterbacks (see: Mitch Trubisky) leading playoff-caliber teams, could give the Giants a chance to hang onto the NFC East crown by season’s end. The Giants’ new QB1 has the right mix of gunslinger and game manager to enhance a ground-and-pound offense and complement an aggressive defense that can control the game with a dynamic crew of defensive linemen and linebackers.
Should the Giants continue to build confidence with McCarthy under center, don't be surprised if he ultimately forces an unexpected QB competition in 2027 with Jaxson Dart that determines which former first-rounder owns the starting job for years to come.