Netanyahu falls short of majority as Israel faces three possible paths to a new government

TEL AVIV, Israel - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition remained well short of a parliamentary majority Thursday as newly counted ballots showed a dramatic surge in support for Arab parties, potentially giving the opposition enough votes to challenge his control of parliament.

With 93.8% of ballots counted as of 4 a.m. ET Thursday (10 a.m. local time in Israel), including votes from the double-envelope count, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc was projected to win 53 seats in Israel's 120-member Knesset, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. The two predominantly Arab parties were projected to secure a combined 19 seats, bringing the potential anti-Netanyahu parliamentary majority to 67.

The updated figures showed Netanyahu's Likud remaining the largest individual party with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar party with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's Beyachad party with 12. The figures remain preliminary.

NETANYAHU DEFIES EXIT POLLS AS VOTE SHIFTS IN HIS FAVOR, BUT MAJORITY REMAINS ELUSIVE

The results leave neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot with the 61 seats required to form a government independently, raising the prospect of difficult coalition negotiations or another election.

The biggest shift came from Israel's Arab voters, whose turnout surged compared with previous elections, potentially reshaping the country's political balance.

Arab voter participation reached approximately 80%, compared with 53.2% in the 2022 election, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. The 2026 figure remains preliminary.

The Joint List was projected to win 11 seats, while Ra'am was projected to secure eight. Together, their 19 seats would nearly double the Arab parties' representation from the 10 seats they won in 2022.

Overall voter turnout reached 77.7% by the official 10 p.m. closing time on election night, the highest level at that hour since 1999, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee.

The increased Arab participation could prove decisive in determining the next government's composition. Although Eisenkot and several other opposition leaders ruled out including Arab parties in their governing coalition during the campaign, their parliamentary support could allow the opposition to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu ally, and gain greater control over the legislative agenda even before a new government is formed.

IRAN IS TRYING TO ‘CREATE A ROT FROM WITHIN’ THROUGH ‘INFORMATION WARFARE,’ ANALYST WARNS

The political stakes intensified Thursday following a Channel 12 report alleging that substantial sums originating in Qatar may have been transferred to influence voter participation in Arab communities.

According to N12, some of the funds allegedly traveled through financial channels previously used to transfer money to terrorist organizations, including currency exchanges.

The allegations have not been independently substantiated, and investigators have yet to establish whether foreign financing occurred or whether election-related crimes were committed.

Channel 12 reported that Shin Bet Director David Zini presented intelligence concerning suspected foreign interference to Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg, prompting the judge to order an investigation.

In a letter published by N12, Sohlberg instructed the domestic security agency to investigate the allegations and identify evidence that could either substantiate or disprove them. He requested findings within one week, citing the limited time available during the election count.

The judge's letter did not publicly identify Qatar as the suspected foreign actor. That identification came from N12's reporting.

Qatar strongly denied the allegations Thursday, accusing Israeli politicians of attempting to drag the Gulf nation into Israel's domestic political disputes following the election.

"We categorically deny allegations that Qatar has interfered in Israeli elections or funded any activities intended to influence their outcome," Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dr. Majed Al-Ansari wrote on X.

Al-Ansari accused Israeli politicians and their allies in the media of launching a "disinformation campaign," saying Qatar had been accused of financing Netanyahu, the Israeli left and now Arab voters.

"If these claims were to be believed, Qatar would apparently own all of Israel," he wrote. "Qatar should not be used as a scapegoat for the political failures of certain Israeli politicians," Al-Ansari added, insisting that Qatar had no involvement in Israel's electoral process and would continue its diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in the region.

Acting Central Elections Committee director general Dean Livne also rejected the allegations in a letter to Yesh Atid MK Vladimir Beliak, who sits on the committee. "The Knesset elections were conducted lawfully. The integrity of the elections at polling stations was rigorously safeguarded, and to the best of our knowledge, there is no basis for allegations of systematic violations of election integrity."

But the allegations quickly became part of the political confrontation over whether opposition parties should cooperate with Arab lawmakers.

ISRAEL HEADS INTO DEEPLY DIVIDED ELECTION AS OCT. 7 RECKONING LOOMS: WHAT TO KNOW

Netanyahu and Likud had already challenged the legitimacy of the Arab parties' electoral gains. On Wednesday, before the latest Qatari allegations emerged, Likud accused Arab parties of stealing the election through alleged voter fraud, accusations that had not been substantiated.

In a statement Thursday, Likud argued that the suspected foreign interference made cooperation with the Arab parties unacceptable.

"After it became clear that foreign actors attempted to take control of the Knesset, it is obvious that no Zionist party must cooperate with Ra'am and the Joint List, replace the Knesset speaker using votes bought with cash, or establish a government dangerous to Israel," the party said.

The assertion that parliamentary seats were obtained through purchased votes has not been established by the investigation.

Hauser Tov, a political reporter for Israel's Haaretz newspaper, argued on X that the statement revealed Likud's immediate political objective: preventing the opposition from using its potential parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker.

Israeli journalist Amir Tibon wrote on X that "The main reason they want to prevent this is so that the Knesset won't vote to establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7." He argued that such an investigation could examine Qatari involvement in Gaza and Israel.

Eisenkot responded to the allegations Thursday, after meeting with Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) Director David Zini. "Foreign involvement in Israel is unacceptable and profoundly serious, particularly when it involves a country that funds and supports Hamas," Eisenkot said. "It is serious when it occurs in the Prime Minister’s Office, and it is serious if it occurs in the electoral process."

He called on the Shin Bet to investigate the allegations thoroughly and take the strongest possible action against anyone found to have attempted to compromise the election's integrity.

Eisenkot also accused Netanyahu and his allies of conducting "an illegitimate influence operation targeting the Israeli public," claiming its purpose was to delay the publication of the results and undermine the legitimacy of the newly elected Knesset.

Israeli political commentator Amit Segal also cautioned against assuming the allegations would lead to the cancellation of election results.

"The likelihood of the entire election being invalidated is extremely slim, given the time constraints," Segal wrote on X. He suggested the developments could instead intensify discussions about a unity government or another election.

Meanwhile, Democrats party leader Yair Golan urged opposition leaders to move quickly toward forming a new government.

"The people have spoken. Sixty-seven seats demanded change," Golan wrote Thursday on X, adding that he intended to spend the day meeting with political partners and coalition negotiators. "I intend to leave no stone unturned, act in every possible way and do everything necessary to fulfill the voters' will," he added.

The comments underscored the central question emerging from the election: whether parties united in their opposition to Netanyahu can overcome their differences, particularly over cooperation with Arab lawmakers.

Another possibility is a national unity coalition involving Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar party, potentially excluding the Arab parties and Netanyahu's far-right allies.

Such an arrangement could also align with the preferences of figures close to President Donald Trump, who publicly endorsed Netanyahu ahead of the election.

According to Ynet diplomatic correspondent Itamar Eichner, sources close to Trump said the president wants to ensure that far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is excluded from the next Israeli government, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich potentially excluded as well.

A separate Ynet report said Trump associates had contacted Israeli political figures to assess the prospects for a unity government and expressed a preference for a stable coalition without Ben-Gvir.

Trump himself has not publicly endorsed a specific unity arrangement.

Asked Wednesday by Axios whether he would become involved in efforts to establish a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump said, "I will take a look."

A unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot would face substantial obstacles. Eisenkot repeatedly pledged during the campaign not to join a Netanyahu-led government, while Netanyahu's far-right partners have warned against efforts to exclude them.

The ultra-Orthodox parties present another potential route to a parliamentary majority. Netanyahu's projected 53 seats include 14 held by Shas and United Torah Judaism, which have traditionally aligned with him.

Those 14 seats, combined with Eisenkot's projected 48-seat opposition bloc, would mathematically produce a 62-seat majority. But such an arrangement would face major disagreements over military conscription, as Eisenkot has pledged to expand mandatory service to ultra-Orthodox men, while the religious parties have sought to preserve exemptions for yeshiva students.

Political divisions within Eisenkot's own bloc would present additional obstacles to such a coalition.

For now, the foreign interference allegations remain under investigation, while the election results continue to show Netanyahu's existing coalition without the parliamentary majority required to govern on its own.

Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed, a process that could take weeks or longer.