Ranking which Power 4 college football head coaching job is most likely to come open next

The college football coaching carousel is constantly turning, and although this year's firing cycle doesn't look quite as star-studded as it did around this time last season, that doesn't mean we won't have a crazy end to 2026.

Last October, a string of elite job openings occured within a few weeks of each other, as Penn State, Florida, and LSU all jettisoned their head coaches for underperforming relative to the expectations placed upon them.

So far, 2026 has seen its fair share of Power 4 firings, but most fans and coaches alike seem to be waiting for a "blue blood" type of job to come open.

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While Florida State appeared to be the most likely opening heading into the season, their new administration has made it clear a change at head coach in 2026 is unlikely.

That begs the question, then: Which "big boy" job will be the next to open up this season?

The way I see it, there are three big time Power 4 coaches who have the potential to be handed their pink slip before season's end.

Let's explore all three of these jobs, ranked in order of how likely they are to be open by the end of the year.

Things are going pretty poorly for the Clemson Tigers, and have been for quite some time now.

Their offense is absolutely putrid, and they're coming off a dismal performance against Virginia Tech, dropping them to 4-3 on the year.

There's still technically plenty of season left to right the ship, and if the Tigers win out, there's an outside chance they sneak into the ACC Championship Game with just two conference losses.

Now for the reality: even if they win out, they'd still need losses from SMU and Wake Forest (whom they don't play) and another loss from Virginia Tech thanks to that aforementioned defeat to the Hokies last Saturday.

Looking at the schedule, it might not be as easy as it looks, as the Tigers still have to play a Florida State team who played SMU, Alabama, and Miami closer than almost anyone this season, as well as a 5-2 Duke squad and a resurgent South Carolina team at the end of the year.

With all that being said, I still don't think head coach Dabo Swinney's job is in jeopardy outside of an epic collapse.

If Clemson fails to make a bowl game, Swinney could start to feel the heat heading into 2027, but I haven't seen anything to suggest Dabo is in danger.

Anything is possible, and the results haven't been there for a program that just a few seasons ago had perennial national championship expectations, but Swinney has built up plenty of equity while coaching the Tigers.

Coaches waiting for the Clemson job to come open shouldn't disregard it completely as an option, but they also shouldn't hold their breath.

For as bad as things are going in Clemson, they're magnitudes worse in Boulder.

The Buffs haven't had much to cheer about for most of head coach Deion Sanders' tenure, outside of a miraculous 2024 season which seems even more improbable the further removed we are from it.

Colorado finished the season ranked in the top-25 thanks to a nine-win campaign and even produced the school's second Heisman winner in program history (Travis Hunter).

Since then, it's been a rocky road for Coach Prime, marked by a disastrous 3-9 campaign in 2025 and a 2-5 start to 2026.

Sanders has an 18-25 record while at Colorado, but the results on the field only tell a part of the story.

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The recruiting has been a disaster, something Prime was supposed to excel at when he arrived in the Centennial State, and the talent he has managed to bring in doesn't seem to help in the win/loss column.

Then there was the report of Sanders offering $50,000 to silence any of his critics, which Sanders called "a joke," but regardless, something is definitely up in Boulder.

I can't say whether Sanders will last the entire season, but his job is way less safe than someone like Dabo Swinney's.

The Buffaloes basically have to win out to make a bowl game, and with games against Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF to end the season, that looks highly unlikely.

I doubt even a program like Colorado would tolerate paying a coach $10 million a year to make one postseason trip in four seasons, so the clock may be ticking on Prime's future with the Buffs.

Of all the "big boy" jobs with the potential to open up in 2026, USC might be the one to keep your eyes trained on.

Entering the season, two things were simultaneously true: head coach Lincoln Riley was on an increasingly warming seat, but this was also the best chance the Trojans had at a College Football Playoff berth since his first season in Los Angeles.

Those expectations may be what ultimately damns Riley in the end, as USC enters Halloween with two losses.

Another defeat could mean curtains for the Trojans' CFP dreams, and could also give the administration a reason to show Riley the door.

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That third loss could come as early as this weekend, with the Trojans welcoming the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes to the Colosseum.

The Buckeyes are a touchdown favorite, even without starting signal caller Julian Sayin, and if USC drops a home game to a backup quarterback, the patience may finally run out for the 43-year-old head coach.

A loss to a team as talented as Ohio State, in a vacuum, isn't anything to be ashamed of, but as I mentioned before, it's about the body of work, and Riley has been an abject disappointment since arriving in Southern Cal in 2022.

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The Trojans haven't made the Playoff once in his four and a half seasons, and they don't have a single top-ten finish to show for their efforts either.

It looked like things were starting to turn around this past offseason, as Riley and USC signed the number one recruiting class in the country to go along with one of his most talented rosters to date.

On paper, the Trojans were expected to compete for Big Ten supremacy and ultimately make the postseason tournament, but that looks to be a pipe dream at this point, as a loss to Wisconsin (who has a coach of their own on a hot seat) effectively put those CFP hopes on life support.

If the game on Saturday goes how Vegas thinks it will, you might want to keep your phone close to you on Sunday.

The firing news will travel quickly.