Netanyahu defies exit polls as vote shifts in his favor, but majority remains elusive

TEL AVIV, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc gained ground Wednesday morning as Israel counted votes from its first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, but remained short of the majority needed to form a government, leaving the country facing another potential political deadlock.

With approximately 70% of votes counted, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc stood at 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, compared with 47 for the main opposition and 19 for Arab parties, according to partial election results reported by Israeli media. Netanyahu's Likud led with 27 seats, while former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party held 20.

As both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed victory Tuesday night, Israelis told Fox News Digital that although they had expected a tight race, the shifting numbers and uncertainty over who could form a government had left many confused about what comes next.

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Despite Netanyahu's lead, the parties outside his governing bloc collectively held 66 seats, a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, creating a potential path for the opposition to challenge his leadership if it can secure sufficient cooperation from Arab lawmakers.

The results marked a shift from Tuesday night's initial exit polls, which prompted celebrations at Eisenkot's campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to accept the results and step aside, while Netanyahu declared later in the night from his headquarters in Jerusalem that Likud had emerged as the country's largest party and urged the formation of a strong right-wing government.

The election has now shifted from the ballot box to a potentially complicated battle over coalition-building.

President Donald Trump took credit Wednesday morning for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stronger-than-expected election performance, suggesting his endorsement helped shift the momentum of the race.

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In a post on Truth Social, Trump shared a statement from Irving C. Schwartz, who wrote, "When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a Great Prime Minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu."

Later, speaking to reporters near Air Force One, Trump said, "I heard the poll numbers were wrong ... the exit polls; I heard he [Netanyahu] did very well. It was pretty close, but very well. When the endorsement went out, it helped him a lot."

"It's a little bit early, but I'm hearing in Israel, top people say, 'Wow! He did a lot better than people thought.' It's looking like maybe a stalemate or a win," Trump added.

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The growing influence of Arab parties has emerged as one of the most consequential factors in determining Israel's next government.

According to the partial results, the Joint List held 13 seats and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, held six, giving Arab parties a combined 19 seats.

Abbas signaled openness to political negotiations, saying figures from both sides of Israel's political divide had approached him.

"Everyone is talking to us, not just the change bloc," Abbas told Israel's Channel 12.

Democrats leader Yair Golan went further, openly calling for the formation of a new government in cooperation with Arab parties. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count to 120–65 is greater than 55. That's how Israeli democracy works. Period," Golan wrote on X. Golan also rejected Netanyahu's distinction between Jewish and Arab political support, arguing that every Israeli citizen's vote should carry equal weight. "The vote of an Israeli citizen in Tira is worth exactly the same as the vote of an Israeli citizen in Givat Shmuel," he wrote.

Golan's figures reflected an earlier stage of the count, but his argument highlighted an emerging disagreement within the opposition over whether to include Arab parties in the next government.

Eisenkot has previously expressed opposition to including Ra'am in his coalition, while Netanyahu has warned against any government dependent on Arab parties.

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Netanyahu could attempt to expand his current coalition by winning support from at least seven lawmakers outside his right-wing and religious bloc, which would bring him to the 61 seats needed for a conventional parliamentary majority.

Alternatively, Eisenkot could seek enough parliamentary recommendations, potentially including those of Arab parties, to persuade President Isaac Herzog to give him the first opportunity to form a government.

Those recommendations would not necessarily require Arab parties to join a future coalition. However, Eisenkot would still need enough parliamentary support to secure a confidence vote.

A third possibility is another deadlock, with neither leader able to form a government and Israel potentially facing another election.

The final outcome remains uncertain as vote counting continues, including ballots cast by soldiers and other voters using special voting procedures.

Official results are scheduled for Nov. 4, after which Herzog will consult with parliamentary factions and select a lawmaker to attempt to form the next government.

That candidate will initially have 28 days to negotiate coalition agreements, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. 

Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu will remain prime minister.