LIZ PEEK: Five reasons Republicans could defy the polls and shock Democrats on Election Day
Election Day is one week away. Most pundits are ready to declare the midterms over and Democrats the victors. But hold on: There are several reasons Republicans may outperform the gloomy polls and forecasts making headlines.
First, Democrats are unpopular. A recent CNN poll showed Democratic favorability at 35%, considerably below the 38% awarded President Trump in the most recent RealClearPolling average.
Second, Republicans are flush with campaign cash that is now flowing into tough races across the country. Money doesn’t win elections (see: Kamala Harris), but it can help snag undecided voters. That is true especially in contests like the Michigan Senate race, where little-known Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing off against Mike Rogers, a veteran and moderate GOP former congressman.
Voters are just now discovering allegations about El-Sayed’s possible family ties to the designated terrorist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, causing the polls to tighten. Fox News recently reported, "El-Sayed has also faced scrutiny over social media posts from his half-sister describing their mother's alleged involvement in Muslim Brotherhood activism in the 1970s. He has denied personal or family ties to the organization and said he was raised by his father and stepmother."
Third, President Trump is campaigning vigorously, reminding voters why they elected him. Given the incessant attacks on the commander in chief by the liberal media, his rallies are essential. Yes, his approval numbers have been weighed down by the Iran war, but his appearances will help drive turnout.
Fourth, the far left overwhelmed primaries earlier this year, causing Democrats to put up some controversial candidates, like Senate hopefuls James Talarico in Texas and Troy Jackson in Maine.
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Fifth, to quote a recent piece in The Economist: "The polls could be wrong." While the publication concludes that polling errors at the national level have, in different elections, overcounted both Republicans and Democrats, when it comes to specific states and districts, the goofs follow "a remarkably consistent pattern."
In the current races, The Economist writes, "applying the historical trend to this year’s polls reverses Democratic leads in the pivotal states of Alaska and Texas. In Ohio, the Democratic advantage would be cut to less than one percentage point, while Iowa and Kansas would move from being tied to leaning Republican."
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CNN reported the same thing a few nights ago, with analyst Harry Enten describing Democrats’ lead in numerous toss-up states as "nominal" and pointing out that polling in states won by Trump in the past has undercounted Republicans by more than 4 points. If that same level of error persists, the GOP will win in Texas, Maine, Iowa and Kansas, and keep the Senate.
In this year’s election cycle, polling has come under even more scrutiny than usual, especially as totally made-up surveys have entered the mix and been included in supposedly sophisticated aggregates like those published by The New York Times and FiftyPlusOne, which helped reveal the frauds.
An outfit called Wedgewood Polls admitted that it had fabricated polls as an "experiment." Some have alleged the fake surveys were meant to boost far-left candidates like Wisconsin gubernatorial hopeful Francesca Hong, while others have insinuated that the originators of the Wedgewood polls were using betting sites to benefit from the fallout.
Wedgewood isn’t alone; several other survey organizations, including Median Strategies and Public Sentiment Institute, have also been revealed as dishonest or out-and-out frauds. Whatever confidence people had in the polling industry has deflated like a Hillary Clinton election-night balloon.
Remember that most media outlets are rooting for Democrats to take over Congress and punish President Trump. Publishing stories and polls that present the election as essentially over is calculated. If it suppresses GOP turnout and campaign donations in close races, so much the better.
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No one should be driven by polls or gloomy headlines. Instead, consider which candidate is offering policies that history shows lead to better outcomes: lower taxes, lighter regulations that reduce costs, robust law enforcement that produces safer communities, strict oversight of welfare spending that reduces fraud and enables assistance for those who need it, and rigorous education.
Those are the policies that have made Florida more successful than New York and Texas more appealing than California. Policies matter.
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Voters should also ignore Democratic race-baiting. When President Obama, campaigning in Michigan with Sen. Elissa Slotkin for Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, said, "Imagine the power duo of Abdul and Elissa. You got a Muslim man, a Jewish woman, fighting for you in the U.S. Senate. That’s something, Michigan, you can be proud of." That’s vintage Obama, slicing and dicing our politics along race and gender lines, which should have nothing to do with how you vote.
What does matter — in Michigan as elsewhere — is that progressives like El-Sayed are pushing Medicare for All and want to eliminate the kind of gold-plated private insurance packages that unions like the UAW have worked so hard to win. El-Sayed claims that if you like your existing insurance, you can keep it, reminding us of President Obama’s false promise that "If you like your healthcare plan, you can keep it." That canard was PolitiFact’s Lie of the Year in 2013 after Obamacare caused millions of plans to be canceled.
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What matters in New York and many other Democratic-led states is that taxes will have to go up to cover the promises made by far-left politicians. You cannot provide free healthcare, free childcare and free services to people in the U.S. illegally without boosting taxes. New York is already the most-taxed state in the country. The budget for the state is twice that of Florida despite having fewer residents; this is unsustainable.
What matters across the country is maintaining U.S. energy self-sufficiency and boosting employment. When New York progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez calls to shut down fossil fuel production and Gov. Kathy Hochul slaps a moratorium on new hyperscale data centers, they are embracing policies that will cost their state jobs and incomes. That matters.
President Trump was elected on a common-sense, pro-growth agenda. The Iran war complicates that message, but voters should remember that Democrats largely oppose the U.S.-led technological innovations that are driving progress worldwide, will block exploitation of America’s abundant fossil fuels, and will again embrace Joe Biden’s open border.
Those disastrous policies are not the way forward.