Reporter’s Notebook: A Democratic majority could expose the limits of the progressive agenda
"You made me promises. Promises.
Knowing I'd believe.
Promises. Promises.
I knew you'd never keep."
— Promises, Promises by Naked Eyes
"I am a supporter of Medicare-for-all," declared Minnesota’s Democratic nominee for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, D. "I'm going to get there with my friend Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. And we are going to power map the s--t out of the U.S. Senate and figure out how to build power for the things that we know that we deserve and the things that we need."
Hard-left progressive House and Senate candidates like Flanagan are pitching Medicare-for-all. The abolition of ICE. The Green New Deal. An arms embargo for Israel. And a $25 an hour minimum wage.
Flanagan is in a race with Republican Senate nominee Michelle Tafoya to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn. The race favors Flanagan. However, it’s not a done deal that she wins. But Democratic Socialist candidates for the House like Donavan McKinney in Michigan, Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania, Melat Kiros in Colorado, along with Claire Valdez and Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York probably will. Come January, they will prospectively represent Democratic strongholds where progressive ideas are popular.
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But if Democrats win either the House or Senate, it won’t be because voters pulled the lever for Kiros in Denver or Avila Chevalier in Harlem. They’ll win because Democrat Cait Conley defeated Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., in Dutchess County, north of New York City. Maybe because voters cast their ballots for Democrat Brian Poindexter in Wooster, Ohio, rather than Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio. Democrats could flip the House if Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan appeals more to voters in Davenport, IA than Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa.
This brings us back to the progressive agenda.
Democrats might win the House and or the Senate. But Valdez and Kiros aren’t the "majority makers." Candidates like Poindexter and Conley are. And if they’re elected to the House, it’s doubtful that moderates from swing districts can support progressive ideas like the Green New Deal or Medicare-for-all. It’s about the math. And it’s more than likely that Democrats will need the voters of those moderate "majority makers" from battleground districts to enact those policies.
That’s to say nothing about needing 60 yeas in the Senate to crack a filibuster – even if Democrats do marshal a slim majority there. And, if something extreme did get through both bodies of a potentially Democratically-controlled Congress, President Trump would like veto it.
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It is said that you campaign in poetry but you govern in prose.
The left has pushed a lot of progressive poetry with their agenda items of late. They’ll tout the opportunity to enact some of those policies if Democrats win the majority.
However, the reality of advancing any of that into a legislative reality is slim. The progressive ideas may energize the base. But the Democratic base is sure to feel let down if Democrats can’t make good on some of their campaign promises.
We’ve seen this before. A party promises voters the moon in the midterm elections. Then struggles to make good on those promises.
Republicans won the House in 1994 for the first time in four decades with the 10-point "Contract With America." The document promised to cut spending and reduce influence in Washington. But in the end, the House and Senate only approved a few of the items. President Clinton vetoed others.
In 2006, House Democrats campaigned on drawing down the war in Iraq. They captured the House. Congress began defunding the war effort. But it took several years, much to the dismay of party activists who demanded an immediate pullout.
In 2010, Republicans won back control of the House, gaining a record 63 seats. The goal was to reduce spending and repeal and replace ObamaCare. It never happened. In fact, some Republicans are still trying to unwind ObamaCare today.
This is all about exciting the base. And then figuring out how to govern. What candidates promise on the campaign trail rarely morphs into a legislative reality.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., is reportedly in discussions with DSA-backed candidates to secure legislative commitments before some of their candidates will back him in a potential race for Speaker. That said, political observers would find it hard to believe that Democrats would balk at promoting Jeffries, making him the first Black House Speaker in American history.
There’s a chance Democrats could face infighting if the party fractures between moderates and progressives.
Imagine for a moment that Democrats do have the House and intend to bring a Medicare-for-all bill to the floor. The House must first adopt a rule which governs how the House debates that measure on the floor. Would a moderate Democrat like Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., oppose the rule (provided she wins reelection)? After all, Gluesenkamp Perez voted for GOP procedural measures earlier this year, igniting an internal Democratic firestorm. However, those votes may have been good matches for her battleground district. But voting aye on a procedural plan for a controversial, progressive political initiative won’t work in Gluesenkamp Perez’s district. That’s why the progressive agenda may already be dead in the water.
If Democrats do win the House and Jeffries clasps the Speaker’s gavel, his role will be different. He needs to manage his entire caucus. So appealing to the hard left doesn’t work. He must also hear out the moderates. And certainly the majority makers.
For instance, Jeffries isn’t pushing the Medicare for all scheme.
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"I haven't co-sponsored the Medicare for all legislation that has been introduced over the last several years. I do think we need to figure out how to fix our broken healthcare system and then build something better once we repair the damage that has been done," said Jeffries.
That’s a natural stance for a national political leader. Jumping feet first into such a nettlesome issue might not be sound politics. Especially since you must also address the concerns of the moderate majority makers.
But Jeffries may have an out that all Democrats can unify around: investigations of the Trump administration. Since President Trump began his term, Jeffries has promised to hold its officials to account. Jeffries has called out Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth. Ridiculed Attorney General Todd Blanche. Blasted Vice President JD Vance. Spoken about alleged corruption by the Trump family.
Democrats are also campaigning as a foil to the Trump Administration. Their base will demand action via investigations, too. That certainly resonates with the progressive base. And, even moderates who may be the majority makers.
But it isn’t a $25 an hour minimum wage. It’s not the abolition of ICE. It’s not the Green New Deal. Democrats probably won’t get what they want legislatively if they attain the majority. Those are just the political realities. But they may be able to rack some points with investigations. Those would reflect the political realities as well.