Midwest pro-Trump state could hold key to Republicans' midterm hopes
DES MOINES, Iowa — House Republicans are pinning hopes of keeping their majority on a state that President Donald Trump won by roughly 13 points in November 2024.
And while Iowa has leaned red in recent years, Republicans are now finding themselves defending three of its four congressional districts as polls give Democrats more hope by the day that the key to a blue wave runs through the Midwest.
But Republicans are dismissing public perception surveys as a political cudgel used by the media and the left to discourage GOP voters, while insisting the results will come down to one thing.
"Nobody knows what's going to happen on November 3rd. But I'm here to tell you, if our people show up, we win. If our people don't show up … then we're going to be scratching and clawing to hang on to every inch that we've got," House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., told a room of GOP supporters in Dubuque, Iowa, on Thursday.
Fox News Digital joined Emmer and several other House Republicans on a two-district swing in Iowa late last week. The No. 3 House GOP leader spent his afternoon at an event for congressional candidate Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, followed by a fundraiser for Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, in Des Moines in the evening.
At both events, he argued that polling showing Democrats with a growing advantage was incorrect, but he and others are still warning that getting Republicans out to vote will be key to the party’s success.
"Republicans do not like to participate in surveys," Emmer told people Thursday evening in Des Moines. "We are very suspicious of the people who are giving the information to and the databases they’re putting us in. By the way, there are Republicans who answer these surveys who may tell exactly the opposite of what they actually stand on, because again, we don’t trust them."
Fox News Power Rankings show all but one of Iowa’s four congressional districts are in play. Nunn’s district and the one represented by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, both "lean Democrat." The seat Mitchell is vying to take over from retiring Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, is ranked a "toss-up."
Republicans across the country are privately worrying that Trump’s low approval numbers coupled with some of his more unpopular policies could drag down the GOP. Add in the overall high cost of living and gas prices, some on the right are bracing for a 2018-style blue wave.
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Two of the policies that could sandbag Republican candidates in Iowa in particular are Trump’s tariffs and his decision to import foreign beef. The agriculture-heavy state has been hit particularly hard so far, with tariffs making farm equipment and other materials more expensive, while Trump's trade war with China has hit American farmers hard with Beijing's retaliation.
Trump has sought to mitigate the impact of his steel tariffs in particular, announcing plans last month for a $15 billion steel plant in Lee County, Iowa.
But both Nunn and Mitchell are confident in the races they are running.
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"We feel very confident about the race. And that's because we've talked to every voter we can, asked for their vote on November 3rd, and we've been traveling the district for the last 13 months — all 22 counties, rural and suburban and urban, telling people, this is an election of common sense versus crazy," Mitchell told Fox News Digital. "We have the hardest workers on the ballot."
Nunn told attendees at his event, "Not only is Iowa at the front line of the entire country when it comes to making sure we've got three competitive House seats, Des Moines, Iowa, the third district, our proud district, is now one of the most competitive in the country."
"So not only are we on the front line, we get to be at the tip of the spear," Nunn said, weeks after he led a bipartisan bill aimed at curbing Trump's imports of foreign beef.
And despite the national-level outlook on Trump, turning out the president’s supporters could be the difference between narrowly keeping the GOP majority and losing control of the House.
Trump, for his part, is doing what he can to motivate the base.
Nunn kicked off his Thursday evening event shortly after a phone call with Trump, during which the president said he "is committed to making sure we remain here in Iowa," the congressman said.
Trump is also set to descend on the state later this week for a rally in Sioux City, though it’s taking place in the only safe district for Republicans in the state.
"I'm always competing. I don't care if it's Iowa, I don't care if it's Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Texas, Florida, they're all important to this midterm," Emmer told Fox News Digital. "This midterm, to me, will come down to about 10 seats. Everybody talks about 20-plus. No. It's going to be a very narrow end, and for Republicans, Iowa is a great example. If the Republicans come out to vote, we're going to be just fine."
If the fate of the House majority did come down to the results of just 10 seats, that would mean Iowa would be responsible for roughly one-third of that success.
And while not all Republicans are as confident in the GOP’s chances in Iowa, they do agree that the final results will come down to turnout.
"This goes one of two ways — and both aren’t great for Republicans. Marianette Miller-Meeks, Joe Mitchell, and Zach Nunn either win by the skin of their teeth or it’s complete and total obliteration on November 3rd," a GOP operative familiar with campaigns in Iowa told Fox News Digital. "There is no in-between. If Republican voters turn out to the polls, there’s hope. If not, it’s going to be bad."