Gavin Williams strikeout prop, Tyler Glasnow outs pick for ALCS and NLCS Game 3 and 4
We have two games today in baseball, with both the American League Championship Series and the National League Championship Series taking place. It has been a bit of a bloodbath for me, with me believing too much in the Dodgers and not nearly enough in the Brewers. I did get a win in the Rays vs. Guardians Game 2. Their game starts pretty early today, but I'll share a play in both games.
Tampa comes into this game after winning Game 2 and tying the series. They now have to face a Guardians team that is just 1-2 at home this postseason. They lost home-field advantage in Game 1, and now need to steal it back. Griffin Jax is going for the Rays, and he has been a mixed bag for the Rays this season. He has a 3.53 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this year. In his one postseason outing, he went two innings and allowed just one earned run. He didn't face the Guardians this year, but he has held them to 14 hits in 61 at-bats. Jose Ramirez has been solid against him with five hits in 17 at-bats. Steven Kwan, on the other hand, has gone 0-for-10 with three strikeouts.
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The Guardians broke out their bats in Game 1, but couldn't get anything going in Game 2. They had a chance to tie it up late, but they couldn't make it happen. They scored their only run on a Chase DeLauter double to right field. That hit brought the go-ahead run to the plate, but they couldn't knock in anyone else. Gavin Williams is getting the start here, and he is making his fourth appearance of the postseason. Williams is a power pitcher, and he was second in the Majors in strikeouts. In his three appearances this postseason, he struck out 24 hitters over 11.2 innings. He faced the Rays earlier this year and allowed five hits and one unearned run over 7.2 innings. He struck out nine hitters in that game.
Williams is a very good pitcher and has struck out a lot of batters this postseason. However, with the number of pitches he has thrown (210) this postseason and the amount of work he has had, I don't see him going deep into this game. I like under 6.5 strikeouts. The Rays only have 32 strikeouts this postseason in five playoff games. Those reasons combine to give me a play on Williams under 6.5.
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Los Angeles is on the verge of complete collapse. Last season, they swept the Brewers, and this season they look like Milwaukee will return the favor. What has to be most disheartening for Los Angeles is that they've scored first in two of three games and had a lead in each game. The Brewers see the Dodgers score, and instantly get their runs back, and then some more. The Dodgers have to find some hitting. They've been abysmal with runners in scoring position.
The Brewers haven't decided who will throw for them, but honestly, it doesn't matter because the Dodgers haven't hit anyone anyway. Tyler Glasnow will go for the Brewers, and against Atlanta, Glasnow went 4.2 innings and allowed one hit in the game. In the postseason, starters don't go very deep into games. Last night, Dave Roberts left Blake Snell in a bit too long, even though Snell was dealing. It cost the Dodgers the game.
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I expect Roberts to have a quick hook and pull Glasnow early. I'm taking under 14.5 outs recorded from him. I'll also take a shot at William Contreras under 0.5 hits in the game. He has been hitting really well, but Glasnow has done great against him in the past.
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