Blue-state governor’s race defies expectations as Republican closes in: Power Rankings

Republicans are gaining ground in blue-leaning Oregon, where Fox News Power Rankings have shifted the governor's race toward the GOP as Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek faces a competitive rematch with Republican Christine Drazan.

The shift from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat reflects a competitive political environment in Oregon, where concerns over homelessness, housing, taxes, schools and the cost of living have created an opening for Republicans to end a more than four-decade losing streak in gubernatorial elections.

Republicans are gaining ground in Oregon even as they face a rough national political environment marked by high gas and diesel prices, what polls show is an unpopular war in Iran and President Donald Trump's low approval ratings.

"This is something historic we're trying to pull off," Drazan said in a Fox News Digital interview. "It's been a long time, and we're due we win."

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Then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried Oregon by 14 points in the 2024 presidential election, and Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden won his 2022 re-election by 15 points.

But gubernatorial showdowns in the northwestern state have traditionally been much closer contests.

Drazan, a former GOP leader in the Oregon House, lost to Kotek by less than four points in 2022.

After her defeat, she won a state House election in 2024 and returned to the legislature, serving again as minority leader before being appointed last year to the state Senate.

"It's good to stay in the fight. I think Oregonians ... recognized that I didn't leave, I didn't move to a different state, I didn't go hide. I got engaged again, went back into the legislature to serve my community," Drazan emphasized. "I think that that matters to people, that I am committed long-term to our state."

The latest public opinion polls indicate a margin of error race in the Kotek-Drazan rematch.

"People are starting to get to know me a little bit more and my leadership, and they're taking a closer look at whether or not Oregon is uniquely bad right now. It's not a national issue, it's here at home," Drazan said. "We're struggling right now locally. So, that's making this race tight."

While Drazan is trying to keep her focus on Oregon and local issues, the Kotek campaign is aiming to anchor the GOP challenger to Trump, who is very unpopular in the state.

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Kotek communications director Federico Araujo told Fox News Digital, "There are still many undecided voters ahead of November. But when the choice is clear in an election, they always show up. And the choice couldn't be any clearer in this race: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump's agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm."

But Drazan said that "Oregon needs change. Oregon needs to be done with one approach to the world. Single-party control has not been good for us in my home state. And we need that balance."

"We need people to be at the table that have been ignored in the past to be able to turn our economy around, frankly, and turn our schools around and serve the people that are facing addiction and slowly dying on our streets. Those are significant challenges, and Tina Kotek doesn't have the answers to solve them," she charged.

Four years ago, Drazan received plenty of support from national Republicans as her party benefited from a more favorable political environment.

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This time around, national Republicans are facing stiff headwinds as they work to hang on to their fragile congressional majorities and governors' offices across the country. But the Drazan campaign says it's now landing financial support from the Republican Governors Association.

"I am grateful to have the Republican Governors Association as a partner in this race. They are investing in this race now," Drazan said.

But she noted "the sitting governor has a fundraising advantage that's significant today," and added, "I could always use more support."

Democratic Governors Association spokesperson Johanna Warshaw spotlighted the competitive nature of the Oregon gubernatorial showdowns, but told Fox News Digital, "Governor Kotek has the advantage, and we're confident she'll win.

"Clearly, the RGA agrees as they're leaving Christine Drazan's broke campaign out to dry," Warshaw claimed.

Drazan highlighted that she's "actively fundraising all the time and encouraging folks to get involved in this race right now. We have no limits in Oregon, and that allows me to be able to compete head to head."

And pointing to her campaign, she said, "I want to achieve something extraordinary."