The blue wave looks real until you look a little closer
It’s like watching some sci-fi game with players competing on 470 different fields. Which is your basic definition of crazytown. No human being, without mainlining AI into his or her arm, could possibly track so many contests, so we bounce from one race to the next, with buzzers and bells, like a pinball machine.
Look! Charlie Cook is moving 18 House races in the Democrats’ favor! This is o-vah! The blue wave is getting stronger. Put a cork in this one, it’s done!
But wait a minute. The Republicans have a huge cash advantage. Big-time Democratic donors, for whatever reason, are sitting on their checkbooks. Don’t they realize the stakes? Are they all blinded by the sun on their private islands?
There seems to be a consensus, even privately among Republicans, that the Dems will take the House. The only question is the margin.
So we all wind-surf across the Senate race, even if we know little more than what we read that morning in Politico, or the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.
The GOP just sent another $30 million to Ken Paxton, the Texas Republican who has more baggage than a 747. (Being impeached by your own party doesn’t help.) He was caught on audio saying "everybody’s numbers dropped" after President Trump’s midterm convention. Even Trump calls him "a pain in the *ss sometimes." And this is the guy they want to win?
DEMOCRATS THINK A BLUE WAVE IS BUILDING. HERE ARE 3 FORCES THAT COULD STOP IT
His Democratic opponent, James Talarico, went into hiding–what’s up with that? Turns out he had a nasty case of the flu. Still, it’s Texas, the Lone Star State, where Democratic dreams go to die.
Okay, we’re starting to get vertigo. In Maine, is this the year Susan Collins gets knocked off? One poll has her trailing by four points against Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced weirdo candidate and Nazi tattoo-wearing Graham Platner, who quit after a sexual assault allegation. What a lovely business.
Republicans have a president who’s polling in the low 30s, which perhaps explains why he was campaigning the other day in Syracuse, when New York is among the bluest of blue states.
The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the Senate, and while some are prematurely sipping Champagne, nobody really knows if they can draw that kind of inside straight. If they tell you they do, they’re lying.
There’s a harsh spotlight on the Michigan Senate race, featuring Democratic socialist Abdul el-Sayed vs. former congressman Mike Rogers. I eagerly watched their high-decibel debate the other night–okay, I was assigned to it--and here’s my takeaway.
El-Sayed won on points–he’s just a smoother and more aggressive debater than Rogers, who looks like a classic pol–and every third sentence was an attack on Trump or the war. This put Rogers at a disadvantage, because he supported the Iran war but now says it should end.
And El-Sayed kept whacking Rogers for owning two yachts, which is sort of irrelevant.
Rogers called his opponent a "con man" and kept trying to tie him to the Muslim Brotherhood. This was a weakness for el-Sayed, who was asked whether he’d send aid if Israel was attacked, and insisted that he’d rather spend the money here at home.
El-Sayed also did a lousy job of defending Medicare for All and why it wouldn’t bring the end of private insurance. Since Michigan is near the border, both men came out against Canadian tariffs–a flip for Rogers–in a noisy segment that was utterly indecipherable to mere mortals.
The whole thing turned into an interrup-ta-thon, with the moderator constantly scolding the contenders.
Aren’t you glad you missed it? Now, thanks to yours truly, you can pretend you saw the debate.
But enough about the midterms. Time to join the punditocracy and speculate about 2028.
Kamala Harris is leading the ridiculously early polls, with a quarter of the Democratic vote.
There’s just one problem. Her husband, the Wall Street Journal reports, has privately told people he doesn’t want her to run. How’s that for a vote of confidence?
So bite your nails, everyone. The fate of the free world, both sides are warning, hangs in the balance.