Shingles rates fall off a cliff among some Americans as researchers reveal likely reason

Shingles rates have dropped sharply among younger U.S. adults, as the first generation eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination is now in their late 20s.

That’s according to a major study led by Epic Research, which analyzed the electronic health records of more than 85 million adults.

The biggest drop was between people born from 1991 to 1995 and those born from 1996 to 2000.

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"Shingles is caused by a virus that is harbored in the peripheral nerves — varicella-zoster, the same virus that causes chickenpox — which can remain dormant and later reactivate, particularly during stress or other decreased immune responses, resulting in a shingles risk," Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, told Fox News Digital.

About 46 out of every 10,000 people in the older group were diagnosed with shingles, compared with just 17 out of every 10,000 in the younger group — a 62% decrease.

The study period was between January 2017 and June 2026, with the findings published on Oct. 2, 2026.

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Overall, shingles was found to be much more common in older adults. About 182 out of every 10,000 people born between 1968 and 1975 were diagnosed with the condition, compared with just seven out of every 10,000 born between 2006 and 2008.

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"Shingles diagnoses rise steeply with age, but the newer signal is a sharp drop that begins with people who were eligible for the childhood chickenpox vaccine in the mid-1990s," study author Kersten Bartelt, a research clinician in Verona, Wisconsin, told Fox News Digital.

"This is the pattern we would expect if childhood chickenpox vaccination lowers the risk of developing shingles later in life."

If the trend continues as vaccinated groups grow older, it would suggest that childhood chickenpox vaccination could offer a lasting benefit in reducing shingles, "which is something continued follow-up and research will clarify," Bartelt added.

Siegel agreed that this data aligns with previous research showing that by preventing the initial infection via the chicken pox vaccine ("or causing a very mild version of a live virus vaccine") the risk of shingles is significantly reduced.

He noted that the vaccine uses a weakened form of the virus, which is much less likely to reactivate later in life and cause shingles.

There were some limitations of the study, including that the researchers did not determine whether individual patients had actually received the varicella vaccination during childhood.

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"This is a descriptive, observational study, so it shows associations rather than cause and effect," Bartelt said.

Healthcare disruption due to the COVID pandemic in 2020-2021 could have also affected diagnosis rates and skewed the results, the researchers noted.

Future studies are needed to confirm a link between childhood vaccination histories and long-term shingles outcomes.

"People should continue to follow established vaccine recommendations and talk with their clinician about the shingles vaccine when they're eligible," Bartelt advised. "It's also a reminder that shingles can occur in younger adults, so anyone with a painful, blistering rash should seek timely evaluation."

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While people who received the chickenpox vaccine have a lower risk of developing shingles, Siegel said he still recommends that eligible people get the shingles vaccine to further reduce that risk.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends shingles vaccination for adults 50 and older, as well as certain immunocompromised adults 19 and older, including people who previously received the varicella vaccine.