No, the San Diego Padres didn't lose because of controversial ninth inning home run ruling
If there's one thing the Major League Baseball postseason always delivers, it's drama. And Saturday night's game between the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers certainly had more than its fair share.
The Brewers entered the game and the series as big favorites, thanks in large part to likely NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski starting game one. Misiorowski has been nearly unhittable this season, with a minuscule 1.80 ERA, just 96 hits allowed all season, and 252 strikeouts in 174.2 innings. But the Padres have been baseball's hottest team down the stretch, and were able to force him out after pushing across two runs in just four innings.
But the Brewers battled back, tying the game on a Jackson Chourio homer and taking the lead late on another from William Contreras. The Padres missed an opportunity in the top of the 8th, but started the 9th with the heart of their lineup facing closer Trevor Megill. Dustin Harris singled to lead off the ninth, Manny Machado struck out, and Ty France launched what's now become one of the most controversial fly balls in recent postseason history.
While it looked at first glance like a potential go-ahead home run, or might fly harmlessly foul, France hit the ball so high it banged off the roof support system at American Family Field and fell into the field of play just onto the warning track in left field, where Jackson Chourio caught it for an out.
Several minutes of discussion followed, with the umpires ruling on the field that it was, in fact, a fair ball and effectively a fly ball out. Many fans, and some of the players, were clearly confused, assuming that a ball hitting the roof would become immediately "dead" and the play restarted.
By rule though, there's no question that the umpires made the correct call. Major League Baseball's ground rule page, specifically covering American Family Field, covers this exact situation. If the "Batted ball strikes roof, roof truss, roof cable, or any cabling over fair territory," the rule states, it's considered "In Play."
"If caught by fielder," it continues, "batter is out, and runners advance at own risk."
That's exactly what was determined on the field, and what the replay review confirmed. The ball was in fair territory when it hit the roof, it fell down to the field of play where it was caught by an outfielder, and the hitter is out. Controversy over, right?
Well, not exactly.
Many fans, obviously most notably Padres fans, are convinced that the ball would have been a home run had it not hit the roof. France himself said as much after the game in the clubhouse. "You would think with all the technology we have now we’d be able to make a clear call on that," France said. "There should be something put in place right there. That shouldn’t be an out. … We’ve got ball tracking. We’ve got exit velo. We’ve got projected distances. We have all that stuff."
And that's where the second part of the controversy has continued, and even grown. Had the ball not hit the roof, would it have been a game, and potentially series, changing home run?
France is right; we do have ball tracking, exit velocity and projected distances, thanks to the league's Statcast operation. And those metrics all but confirmed one thing: that was not going to be a home run.
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Statcast measured France's fly ball at 105.3mph exit velocity at a whopping 49 degree launch angle. The projected distance? 325 feet. The wall in Milwaukee? Well, it's hard to know exactly where the ball would have come down if unobstructed, but the shortest dimension is 342 feet directly at the foul pole. Had the ball been more towards left center, it's even further.
There's more to it than that. Statcast predicted "expected" batting average, essentially how often balls hit with those exact characteristics become hits, was .050. Balls hit 105.3mph at 49 degrees are outs 99.5% of the time. They're also home runs in just one stadium: Daikin Park in Houston, thanks to the short porch with the Crawford Boxes.
Thanks to Statcast, we can compare similarly hit baseballs with that exact launch angle and see the results. Here's the list from 2026:
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Expanding the search to 2024 and 2025, there were a number of other balls that met these exact characteristics. Of the 15 batted ball events, including 2026, 14 were outs, with one double from Aaron Judge in 2024. The furthest a batted ball traveled with those exact numbers was 337 feet, a fly ball from Cody Bellinger in April 2025.
There are different outcomes because of weather conditions, the exact backspin of the ball, and many other variables. But with the exact measurements available to us, not a single ball hit with that velocity and launch angle traveled far enough to cover the left field wall at American Family Field, even if it were directly down the line.
France, though, was convinced it was "going out."
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"I guess the biggest question was whether it was going to stay fair or foul," he said. "I thought I backspun it and thought it was going to stay fair. Knew it was going out."
Except we've seen, countless times, players look as though they expect a ball to fly for a homer, only to die on the warning track. Players aren't reliable narrators when it comes to judging distance. Data is. And the data shows France's fly ball wouldn't have cleared the fence.
Fluky and bizarre and open to endless debate? Yes. Postseason robbery? No.