Sleeper Senate race emerges as unexpected headache for Republicans ahead of midterms

Republicans fully acknowledge they are facing political headwinds going into the midterm elections in November, and those winds are swirling in a race that has become quietly competitive as Election Day nears.

Kansas has, for nearly a century, consistently elected Republicans to the Senate. 

But in a midterm election year when voters are unhappy with the Trump administration’s actions and its impact on the economy, the race between Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., and megachurch Pastor Adam Hamilton has tightened more than some in the GOP would have liked.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., the Senate GOP’s campaign chief, acknowledged that the race is close but remained confident Marshall would hold on.

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"Listen, I think if you look at Kansas, it's a very competitive state, more competitive than I'd like to see it. But the fact of the matter is that we're gonna win in Kansas," Scott said.

Republicans are trying to maintain and expand their 53-seat majority but face many toss-up contests across the map and voters that are frustrated with high fuel prices, tariffs and the war in Iran, which could threaten that grip on power.

Kansas isn’t in that toss-up category, but it was recently downgraded by "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" by the Cook Political Report and in Fox News’ election power rankings.

"No one should be surprised that Adam’s message of leading from the middle and working together is resonating across Kansas," Tyson Brody, a spokesperson for Hamilton told Fox News Digital.

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"Roger Marshall has spent the past 18 months hiding from his constituents, voting to slash health care and supporting and endless war that’s led to skyrocketing gas and grocery prices," he continued. 

"Kansans are ready for something different, and that’s why we’ll vote to elect Adam in November."

Still, Scott gave Marshall and others some advice that could be the recipe for success, even in close contests.

"I told Roger Marshall the same thing I told all the candidates nearly two years ago: "You do one of two things. You either run afraid or you run unopposed,’" Scott said. "And, frankly, it's not unopposed.

"And, therefore, you can't run to the tape. You have to run through the tape. I believe that Kansas is a competitive state," he continued. "I will, however, say that, as I look at all the data, it tells me that Roger Marshall will be successful."

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He has already gotten reinforcements in the form of Vice President JD Vance, who earlier this month rallied for the lawmaker and pitched to voters that Marshall, a former obstetrician, was a man who devoted his life to delivering babies and making sure that moms and children from every walk of life were safe and had the healthcare that they need."

"Let’s stand for Doc Marshall and send the crazy people packing, ladies and gentlemen," Vance said.

He will get more backup soon, too. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told Fox News Digital as he exited the Senate late Wednesday night he planned to travel to Kansas. When asked if Republicans would keep the majority, Thune said, "Of course we are."

Marshall is eying a second term in the Senate against Hamilton, a political newcomer who was previously registered as a Republican now running a centrist-aligned campaign. Marshall was first elected to the upper chamber in 2020, cruising to an 11-point victory while Republicans across the country took hits as Trump’s first term came to an end.

Since then, he has aligned himself with Trump as many Republicans did during their time in total control of Washington.

But in recent weeks and months, Marshall has started to distance himself from the administration, like pushing for ICE to coordinate with local law enforcement as agents descended upon southern Kansas or vowing to fight for jobs at Bombardier, a Canadian aircraft maintenance center that employs nearly 1,500 Kansans as Trump’s trade wars ensues.

Hamilton has his own headaches, too. Marshall has consistently painted Hamilton as a "woke" pastor who has delivered sermons to Kansas’ largest United Methodist congregation on Black Lives Matter and climate change, among others.

"As voters continue to learn more about Democrat Adam Hamilton, they are realizing his views are just a carbon copy of every other woke liberal in Washington," Brent Robertson, a longtime senior advisor to Marshall, told Fox News Digital. 

"Voters are turning on this guy quicker than cider."

During one sermon six years ago, Hamilton called on his congregation to repent for eating and producing beef. Notably, Kansas is the third-largest cattle producer in the country.

"Some of the things that we grow, because we like to eat them, like cattle, end up producing more carbon dioxide than other crops that we could grow, other forms of food that we could have," Hamilton said. 

"And, so, in all of these ways, we are creating or adding to the amount of greenhouse gases in our world."