Taiwan analysts say Trump-Xi summit produced no policy shift but real test lies ahead
TAIPEI — Taiwanese officials were watching carefully for signs of policy changes toward the island as President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit last week in Washington, D.C.
Xi’s visit was of high interest in Taiwan, a regular target of China’s threats. On Saturday, a panel that included scholars, a retired U.S. military officer and Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister at the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) in Taipei assessed what the third Trump–Xi meeting of Trump’s current term means for Taiwan. Most expect no change in U.S. policy toward Taiwan.
"Both of them got what they want and what they need," Kuo Yu-jen, INPR’s vice president and a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University’s Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, told Fox News Digital. Trump can point to economic results from negotiating with Xi, while Xi can return to Beijing with the prestige of a high-profile U.S. reception, Kuo said. He called claims by some that Trump had "sold out" Taiwan excessive speculation.
XI PRAISES US STATE VISIT 'PERFECTION' AS TRUMP CALLS MEETINGS 'VERY PRODUCTIVE'
As expected, Xi reportedly pressed Trump to say the United States opposes Taiwan independence. Washington’s preferred description is that it does not support Taiwan independence, a distinction that, much to the relief of Taiwan government officials, Trump maintained.
Speaking exclusively to Fox News Digital after the forum, Taiwan’s Deputy Foreign Minister François Wu said Beijing wants more than a change in diplomatic language. It wants the world to view Taiwan as a domestic Chinese issue. If that argument succeeds, Wu said, Beijing could claim other countries have no right to respond to its actions against the island.
"The so-called independence of Taiwan is just an issue made specifically by the Chinese government," Wu said. Taiwan already has a president and government elected by its people, territory and its own currency, he said. "We just don’t need to declare any independence. We are a sovereign country."
Wu had expressed concerns prior to Trump’s visit to China in May, when he told Bloomberg that "What we are most afraid of is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump."
China’s Foreign Ministry claims Xi urged Trump to maintain the "correct position" to oppose Taiwan independence. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry rushed out an objection on a public holiday in Taiwan, and repeated Taiwan’s own clear position on its sovereignty.
The White House summary of Xi’s visit announced no change in Taiwan policy and instead emphasized more favorable tariff treatment for $30 billion in goods in each direction, an AI incident communication channel and U.S. concerns about rare earth and critical-mineral supplies.
The visit nonetheless raised questions in Taiwan about what Xi might have obtained from Trump in private. Analysts cautioned that if there was a deal over Taiwan, it would only become clear in the coming months. Taiwan awaits Trump’s approval for more arms sales, visits to Taiwan by senior U.S. officials and a potential transit stop in the U.S. for Taiwan’s president. China objects to all of these, so how Trump handles them must balance relations with China, maintaining support for Taiwan and Trump’s priorities.
Dong Li-wen, executive director of the government-funded Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, described the leaders’ shared approach as delaying difficult decisions while waiting for circumstances to change. For Xi, Dong argued, that is a longer-term strategy. For Trump, it is a temporary tactic. The two sides can keep talking and set aside issues they cannot settle, but their underlying competition remains.
The argument over Taiwan’s status is almost 80 years old. China claims the island as its territory, but the People’s Republic of China has not governed it for even a single day. The Republic of China government relocated to Taiwan after the Chinese Nationalists lost the civil war to Mao Zedong’s Communists in 1949.
The governing Democratic Progressive Party’s 1999 Resolution on Taiwan’s Future described Taiwan as an independent sovereign state called the Republic of China under its existing constitution. All of Taiwan’s democratically elected presidents have said something similar in interviews with international media, including Lee Teng-hui to The Washington Post in 1997, Chen Shui-bian to the BBC in 2010, Ma Ying-jeou to CNN in 2010, and Tsai Ing-wen to the BBC in 2020. Current President William Lai Ching-te said the same thing to Time in 2024, adding an oft-repeated insistence that the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other.
That status quo — which amounts to Taiwan being a de facto independent state — is what Taiwan intends to defend, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Wu. Xi left Washington having restated China’s demands. Analysts at the gathering said whether Xi managed to nudge U.S. policy in any way will soon be tested in decisions over arms sales and other issues, with some predicting weapons packages could be scaled down or "unbundled."
Speaking separately to Fox News Digital, Ross Darrell Feingold, a political analyst and assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Department of Diplomacy and International Relations, noted that with a local election in Taiwan this November, followed by presidential and legislative elections in January 2028, Taiwan’s domestic politics could also be a factor in U.S. decisions. "Although the U.S. is likely to back President Lai’s re-election; agreeing to arms sales, visits by Trump administration officials or Lai’s desired transit stop in the U.S. will need to be balanced against coming across as too blatantly interfering in Taiwan’s election, as well as the inevitable anger from China."