Human vs ChatGPT in NFL Week 1 betting picks, from Bears and Packers to Texans and Lions
I’m not sure why I keep doing this to myself, but I’ve decided to spend the NFL season going head-to-head with ChatGPT in a battle of betting picks.
Each week, I’ll make my five best NFL bets. Then ChatGPT will make its five best bets from the same odds board. We’ll track both records throughout the season and let the results determine who actually knows what they're talking about.
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I expect ChatGPT to wipe the floor with me. It has access to more information than any human could process, while I have a long and proud history of giving people reasons to bet against me. If it can’t beat me, all those people predicting AI will take over the world are clearly wrong.
The lines used will be the best available numbers when the picks are made. I reserve the right to complain that I was on the right side and just got unlucky, but the record will count the same either way. If ChatGPT gets one wrong, however, it wasn’t unlucky. It was just wrong. No moving the goalposts for the robot.
First up: my five picks. Then, ChatGPT’s five picks.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
I don't love laying three on the road in Week 1 but the Bears are a team on the rise that came within a play of reaching the NFC Championship last year. The Panthers made the playoffs, but they weren't all that good and are due for negative regression.
Solid price on the better team, and Chicago’s offense should match up well with Carolina’s zone-heavy defense. The concern is laying a full field goal on the road with several Bears carrying injury questions.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Simple: where are the points going to come from? Deshaun Watson and the Browns? Well, maybe, but only if it's Watson throwing pick-6s or turning the ball over deep in his own territory. I also like getting a few unders on the card because Week 1 unders are 52-28 (65%) over the past five seasons, including a 12-4 mark last year.
Cleveland’s quarterback and offensive-line uncertainty create a very low scoring floor; the danger is Jacksonville or its defense producing most of the points.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
I'm expecting a big bounce-back from Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders this season and I think it starts in Week 1. The addition of Stefon Diggs gives the team another weapon and it's going to matter against Philadelphia. The Eagles, conversely, seem primed for a step back and I'm concerned about Jalen Hurts leaning on DeVonta Smith as his No. 1 receiver.
This is the pick I like least. ESPN’s FPI still favors Philadelphia by 4.8 points, which creates only a thin numerical edge on Washington +5½, but its weakened offensive line against Philadelphia’s defensive front could overwhelm that advantage.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
I don't have a lot to say here because it's roughly the same as the Browns-Jaguars analysis. I don't see either team scoring much, especially with Malik Willis and Kirk Cousins guiding these two offenses.
Strong pick—Brock Bowers’ absence and Miami’s unsettled offense give both teams low scoring floors.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I almost feel like a sucker taking this bet because it feels like the most obvious play on the card. But how can I not jump on the better team as an underdog against a team starting another new quarterback this season? I think Kevin O'Connell is an excellent coach and Kyler Murray will thrive under him, but I think it will take a few weeks to come together.
Packers moneyline is my favorite pick on your card and our only overlap. ESPN’s FPI favors Green Bay outright, although the absences of Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs make it far from comfortable.
For full transparency, I used GPT-5.6 Sol Max mode, fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Saturday at 6 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:
"I’m writing an article in which I go head-to-head with you, ChatGPT, on NFL bets. Here’s how it will work: Pick your five best bets for Sunday based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you're passing on the eligible bets you don't select."
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GPT took nearly 20 minutes to produce these five picks:
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Houston’s defense is healthy and has repeatedly troubled Josh Allen. ESPN’s FPI projects Buffalo by only one point—still a Houston cover—while most ESPN and NFL.com panelists picked Houston outright. I prefer the points over Houston’s moneyline at +105 because a one-point Buffalo win cashes the spread.
Projection: Houston 21, Buffalo 20
I hate this pick. Sorry, but I just can't bet against Josh Allen and the Bills, especially in Week 1. Houston won nine straight games to end the 2025 regular season, but they mostly beat up on bad teams and, yes, they beat the Bills but it was a home game on a short week. Even their playoff win was against a mediocre Pittsburgh team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Fifty-one points is a demanding Week 1 threshold. Both defenses added personnel, both starting quarterbacks barely played during the preseason and Tampa Bay’s receiving depth is compromised. ESPN analyst Ben Solak recommended the same under at the worse price of -112.
Projection: Cincinnati 26, Tampa Bay 23
I don't hate this look at all. As mentioned, unders are typically hot in Week 1 and this game screams OVER given the two offenses. Usually when a pick seems obvious, take the other side. In this case, that's the under. Good pick, GPT.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Detroit averaged 28.3 points last season and has recently been the league’s most productive home offense. New Orleans brings weak pass protection, has ruled out Cameron Jordan and lists Alvin Kamara as questionable. Exactly seven pushes, so I would not play -7½.
Projection: Detroit 31, New Orleans 20
Well, this is the other side of the obvious coin. I feel like the public is going to hammer Detroit. I wouldn't be confident betting against the Lions, but I don't love laying the seven, either. I'd avoid this one, personally.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
ESPN’s FPI projects a 9.6-point margin, and four of NFL.com’s five projected scores cover -9. Arizona allowed 35.2 points per game over its final nine games last season and now has two secondary starters out.
Projection: Chargers 30, Arizona 17
Again, I just hate laying these huge numbers in Week 1. The public loves big favorites and we just don't know enough about these teams to lay more than a touchdown. This is an avoid for me.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 56.8% win probability, while +110 requires only a 47.6% win probability. Jordan Love finished 2025 third in Total QBR. The moneyline also strictly improves upon Green Bay -½ at +106: It pays more and pushes on a tie.
Projection: Green Bay 24, Minnesota 23
Well, since I also made this bet, I'm obviously a fan. Great job, GPT. Or, more likely, terrible job since my picks are notoriously bad.
But we’ll see. Check back next week to see how we both did. Follow along throughout the season as we try to answer the most important question currently facing the United States of America: Who is better at betting the NFL, humans or robots?