New Orleans Saints projected under 5.5 wins as roster transition continues into 2026 season
There has been a lot of transition and long-term retooling over the past few seasons for the New Orleans Saints. With head coach Kellen Moore stepping in to take over the reins and second-year quarterback Tyler Shough looking to hold onto the starting role, New Orleans is aiming to prove that its ongoing transition phase can yield immediate results in an open NFC South.
The Saints endured a difficult 2025 campaign, finishing near the bottom of the division with a 5–12 record and missing out on postseason action entirely. It wasn’t all bad. Their defense had some low-scoring performances to keep games manageable, and the offense showed occasional explosive pop when Chris Olave stretched the field. The offense was brutal for most stretches, as an aging Alvin Kamara seemed to be the only real consistent for the team. The inability to pull out one-score decisions down the stretch eventually led to a mid-season coaching shift and set up a busy winter of structural changes in the Big Easy.
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To jump-start an offense that lacked identity, New Orleans hired former Chargers and Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore as head coach. On the player personnel front, the front office handed big-time extensions to core pieces—re-signing star wide receiver Chris Olave to a four-year extension through 2030 and bringing back franchise legend Cameron Jordan on a one-year deal.
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In free agency, the Saints made noticeable waves by signing former Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. to a four-year contract, adding tight end Noah Fant, and retooling the linebacker corps with Kaden Elliss. They also added depth across the board, signing quarterback Zach Wilson, cornerback Martin Emerson, running back Ty Chandler, and safety Terrell Burgess. They no longer will have Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill on the roster, and some other losses happened, but I wouldn’t call any overly significant.
The offense receives a decent boost with Travis Etienne Jr. joining Alvin Kamara in the backfield, forming a versatile, dual-threat running back duo tailored for Kellen Moore’s up tempo system. Out wide, Chris Olave remains the clear focal point of the passing game. The big question still surrounds who will be the most reliable under center. Shough was fine, but I wouldn’t be excited if I was a Saints fan. However, Moore might like him as the team didn’t draft anyone. Spencer Rattler looked lost when he played, and Zach Wilson really hasn’t had success anywhere.
I think their defense will struggle. There have already been injury issues on the line. The Saints are ranked by PFF as the 28th defensive line in football. If you need any clarification, that is terrible. If Chase Young can have a great season, maybe they can make it work, but there should be a lot of concerns on this side of the ball.
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There really just aren’t many things you can be sure of with this team. Moore should make the offense a little more consistent and dynamic. However, I really don’t believe in any quarterback on their roster. Perhaps I’ll eat those words, but right now, I don’t love their options. On defense, I think the team needs to be playing nearly perfectly in order to win games. I think under 5.5 games is a realistic look for them.
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