Why the Rays' Shane McClanahan vs. Orioles pitching matchup looks like a betting gift
I've talked about this before, but there are some games where the line just stands out to you. Normally, it is because you feel like the book is really off about something. In my experience, I've either been a huge winner because of this, or I temper my expectations because I feel like there is something I have to be missing that the books know. That's how I feel about today's game between the Rays and Orioles. The line is off, but maybe I'm missing something. The only way to find out is to throw some cash on it.
The Tampa Bay Rays are among the best teams in baseball, and they were a team that was predicted to be essentially a .500 team. As of right now, they own the American League East and the best record in the American League. They only need to hold up for another few weeks in order to get to the finish line. The Yankees are still chasing them, despite all the injuries, and the Red Sox are within a reasonable striking distance. They aren't playing great baseball at the moment, having lost three of the last five, but they are still in a good spot.
What is surprising to me about today's game is that Shane McClanahan is on the bump for the Rays, and they are only moderate favorites to beat the Orioles. For the season, McClanahan is 9-6 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Perhaps the reason is that he hasn't been great on the road this season, throwing to a 4.31 ERA in away games. It really isn't the result of home runs or hits. It seems that his control just isn't quite as good. He has 21 walks in 48 innings on the road, compared to 14 in 54 innings at home. The other reason is that he has allowed seven earned runs in 13.2 innings over three starts against the Orioles. However, his best start against them came on the road, when he allowed just three hits in 5.1 scoreless innings.
The Baltimore Orioles are a team we've spoken about frequently in these articles. They didn't get the season they were hoping for, but there is some reason for positivity. Their signing of Pete Alonso was great. Gunnar Henderson has shown good pop, even if he has struck out far too much. But I suppose the best thing to keep in mind is they got some decent returns for the players they traded away midseason. It isn't going to help them this year, but when you're already looking forward to next season, some positivity helps.
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Another bright spot in the dark year has been today's hurler, Brandon Young. For the season, Young is 9-3 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has been solid at home this year with a 3.39 ERA. Young is a guy the Orioles probably will lean on next season as well. With his numbers, he can reasonably fit into the middle of their rotation and not have any real issues. He has faced Tampa once this season, it was his most recent start, and he allowed four earned runs (three homers) over four innings of work.
When I looked at the pitching matchup I just kind of scratched my head on why this wasn't a -165 or higher game. McClanahan doesn't go overly deep, but the Rays have one of the better bullpens in baseball. Sure, Young should make some adjustments and improve on his performance. However, McClanahan should as well. I just don't see why the Orioles are getting love. I'll temper my expectations a bit in case I'm missing something, but I'm taking the Rays because I think this line is a gift from the books.
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