Baker Mayfield's contract frustration and Mike Evans departure cloud Buccaneers' 2026 outlook
When a franchise successfully transitions out of a legendary era without collapsing into a total rebuild, maintaining momentum becomes the ultimate goal. Few teams in the NFL have managed that post-superstar transition quite like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With head coach Todd Bowles entering another year at the helm and quarterback Baker Mayfield firmly entrenched as the franchise leader, Tampa Bay is aiming to prove that its reign atop the NFC South is far from over and that its postseason pedigree is here to stay.
The Buccaneers once again found themselves locked in a tight divisional battle, ultimately losing out on the NFC South crown. At their best, Mayfield was playing with confidence, pushing the ball downfield and making big plays in high-leverage situations while the offense operated with real rhythm. At their worst, defensive secondary lapses and occasional offensive lulls kept opponents in games longer than necessary. Mayfield looked like an MVP for the first half of the season when the team went 6-2. After their bye week, the wheels fell off as they lost seven of their final nine games. Injuries were an issue all year, but they still needed to be better than what they showed.
The biggest issue in my opinion with this offseason is that Mayfield has kind of expressed frustration, or disappointment, with the franchise. They were apparently far apart on a contract, and that could make Mayfield a little less motivated for the team. They also lost one of the best players in franchise history in Mike Evans as he went to San Francisco. They have plenty of receivers, but Evans was still dominant and had a good connection with Mayfield. They also lost a cornerback who was a solid contributor to the defense, Jamel Dean. They did some solid additions to the defense with Alex Anzalone and A’Shawn Robinson. Cade Otton, their tight end, is back, so Mayfield will have another weapon.
There is a solid reason for optimism when looking at Tampa Bay’s roster makeup. The offense operates smoothly with Mayfield, supported by a proven receiving corps capable of winning at all three levels of the field. The run game has shown steady improvement, providing much-needed balance to keep defenses from dropping seven into coverage on every third down.
On defense, Todd Bowles’ unit remains aggressive and physical up front, anchored by strong interior line play that shuts down opposing ground games. However, depth in the secondary and consistency against high-octane passing attacks remain areas that could be tested if injuries accumulate during the autumn stretch. Adding Zac Robinson as the new offensive coordinator should also prove a good addition.
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BETTING PREVIEW FOR PATRIOTS AFTER FALLING SHORT IN THE SUPER BOWL AND CONTROVERSIAL OFFSEASON
In case you forgot, last year the Buccaneers were luckier than good. I saw Mayfield make some spectacular plays and save the day for them in the majority of their wins. Looking at their schedule for this year, they have a tough time. Their win total is at 8.5, and I just don’t see them getting over the total. I think the Falcons will likely be better, and the Panthers have a bit of momentum. I’m not taking anything on them, but I would lean to the under 8.5 if I had to play anything. I think my favorite bet for them is that they will be 1-4 after five games. That pays out at +500.
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