Baltimore Ravens 2025 preview: Why the under 10.5 wins looks like the smart bet this season

With pretty much anything in life, there will be change. In sports, five years can feel like an eternity. John Harbaugh lasted for almost 20 years at the helm of the Ravens, so it feels more than a little strange to realize he is no longer calling the shots in Baltimore. Perhaps it was what the team needed after a disaster of an ending to last year.

One kick can change a lot for a person and a franchise. Imagine for a second if Adam Vinitieri missed those field goals in the Super Bowl. With a chance for the postseason on the line, the Ravens had a solid return to set themselves up with a shot for stealing the lead back from Pittsburgh. On a fourth-and-7, Lamar Jackson hit Isaiah Likely for 26 yards. It gave them new life and put them at about a 44-yard field goal attempt. Tyler Loop lined up and missed the field goal, sending Pittsburgh to the postseason and Harbaugh to an exit from the franchise. The team ended with an 8-9 record and went home instead of going to the playoffs, where they would’ve had a good chance to keep advancing. Sure, not everything can be blamed on one game, but this was clearly the one that made the biggest difference.

The biggest change for the team was obviously its head coach. The Ravens are now led by Jesse Minter, who has Harbaugh ties, having been the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers and the Michigan Wolverines, both coached by John's brother Jim. The Ravens also tried to make a push for Maxx Crosby this offseason, but the trade was nixed, and Crosby went back to the Raiders. Instead, they stole a rusher away from a division rival, getting Trey Hendrickson. They also lost their tight end Likely and rusher Dre’Mont Jones. They did lose their center as well, so there are a number of changes that the Ravens will need to adjust to.

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The success and failure of the Ravens, like almost any team, will fall on the quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Despite all of the regular season success, Jackson still hasn’t found it in the postseason, and it will be a knock on him until he does. The offense really shouldn’t be a problem considering the team has Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews. I’m a bit concerned about the offensive line. Any time you replace a center, it can be an issue. The defense should’ve improved a bit in the offseason, and if Minter can get the most out of that unit, it could be a good season in Baltimore.

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The Ravens have a win total of 11.5 for the season. I don’t see it. I’m looking at the schedule, and even if I’m trying to be optimistic about everything, I think they win fewer than 10 games. I’d be happier to place a bet on under 9.5 games at +220 than I would be to take under 11.5 games. Maybe a happy medium is under 10.5 games at +125. The Ravens are typically good in the regular season, but I think they take a step back this year. Give me the under 10.5 and even the 9.5.

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