Year 2 Breakout Candidates: One Player From Each AFC Team Primed To Take A Leap
One need only be reminded of the fact that quarterback Sam Darnold just won the Super Bowl to understand that when it comes to the NFL, patience truly can be a virtue.
Darnold was in his eighth NFL season and the Seattle Seahawks are the fifth team of his professional career, but the point is the same with second-year breakout candidates. It is so easy to get caught up in the excitement of the latest draft class and overlook other young players set to pop.
With that, here are my picks for which 2025 draft picks I believe will take the biggest leaps in their sophomore season.
I expect Sanders to be one of the big winners of the Bills’ plan to play more of a 3-4 base under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. The 6-foot-4, 297-pound Sanders is well-suited for the blue-collar role of eating up would-be blockers, offering impressive strength and length. Sanders won’t necessarily put up eye-popping numbers in 2026, but the former No. 41 overall selection will emerge as an every-game starter this season, after recording just 16 tackles and starting two games as a rookie.
The bright flashes shown by Trader, a fifth-round pick in 2025, contributed to Miami trading star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to division rival New York in the offseason. Trader is quick, instinctive and a sound open-field tackler. He only started three games for the Dolphins as a rookie and yet still finished seventh on the team with 55 tackles. He might pace Miami’s secondary in stops this year.
Wilson didn’t start playing organized football until high school, so when the Patriots asked him to switch to a new position (left guard) after he starred at center at Georgia, I was skeptical. Wilson performed reasonably well as a rookie (though he notably struggled in the Super Bowl), starting 13 games. But I like his frame and athleticism much better at center. He’ll start (and be an upgrade) over Garrett Bradbury from a year ago and has the potential to be one of the league’s best at the position.
Given how often teams throw the football in today’s NFL, it really is remarkable that the Jets did not record a single interception last year. I can’t pin much of the blame on then-rookie Thomas, who tied for third on the Jets in pass breakups — notably one more than Sauce Gardner — despite starting just five games. Gardner started seven games for New York prior to being traded to Indianapolis. In a season full of disappointments for Jets fans, Thomas’ rookie campaign was a relative bright spot. After all, he entered the NFL clearly raw after starting just 14 games at Florida State. He didn’t seem fazed by the jump in competition, however, learning to use his length and physicality to corral receivers in much the same way Gardner has. I see New York boasting a vastly improved defense in 2026 with Thomas emerging as a quality starter on the perimeter.
Jones played right tackle at LSU and could remain there in the NFL, but Baltimore’s starters on the outside seem set with Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten, respectively. As he showed last year in five games, Jones has the bulk and power to slide inside to guard, as well. At minimum, the former third-rounder should prove a valuable swing sixth man this season with the ability to start if called upon.
With just 11 tackles (and one sack) recorded as a rookie, Stewart — the No. 17 overall selection — was a stark contrast to the rest of the Bengals’ top draft picks last year. The relative success of linebacker Demetrius Knight (second round), guard Dylan Fairchild (third), linebacker Barrett Carter (fourth) and guard Jalen Rivers (fifth) last season should have received more national attention, but the injury to star quarterback Joe Burrow left the Bengals largely an afterthought. Cincinnati invested heavily in its defensive front this offseason, including signing Boye Mafe, trading for Dexter Lawrence and drafting Cashius Howell. So Stewart can’t afford another poor season or he risks being discarded. I think he’ll rise to the challenge and prove to be a versatile and important contributor to one of the NFL’s most improved teams this year.
It is entirely possible that veteran Deshaun Watson beats out Sanders for the starting role and the numbers the latter posted in his rookie season (1,400 passing yards, 7 touchdowns, 10 interceptions in seven starts) drop in Year 2. But unless the Browns see Watson as a long-term solution, the smarter move would be to allow Sanders to sink or swim in his sophomore NFL season so that the club can adjust accordingly in time for what should be a QB-rich 2027 NFL Draft. Here's guessing Sanders sees the field again at some point this season and proves he can play.
Coach Mike McCarthy inherits a defense teeming with good young talent up front. The Steelers, in fact, boast a trio in Sawyer, defensive linemen Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black that are all among my favorite league-wide breakout candidates. I’ll highlight Sawyer, in part, because I don’t think many others will. With fellow pass-rushers T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and the recently extended Nick Herbig theoretically ahead of him on the depth chart, Sawyer faces an uphill battle just for playing time. His production last year was good — 34 tackles, three tackles for loss, a sack and two interceptions — but the tape was even better. Sawyer played like a Steeler from the start, showing impressive strength and awareness for a first-year player. His anticipated growth is part of the reason why I believe a Pittsburgh defense that ranked a mediocre 17th in the NFL last year in points allowed (387) is going to be a top-10 unit this year.
Given that Marks led the Texans with 703 rushing yards as a rookie, some would argue that his breakout has already occurred. Further, with Houston trading for veteran David Montgomery in the offseason, the second-year pro’s opportunities will be somewhat capped. With all due respect to the bulldozing Montgomery, however, Marks is the more dynamic runner (and receiver). If C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense get back on track in 2026 like I anticipate, Marks will prove in Year 2 that his rookie numbers were no fluke.
I’m so tempted to list Tyler Warren here as I think he’s a legitimate contender to lead all tights ends in receptions in 2026. After all, he finished tied for sixth among the position with 76 grabs for 817 yards and four scores as a rookie. But in terms of true breakouts, I’m excited for the opportunity awaiting Walley, who turned heads during training camp last year before tearing an ACL in a joint practice with Baltimore. With Kenny Moore no longer with the Colts, Walley will have first crack at the open nickel position and the former third-round pick possesses the quick feet and instincts to excel there.
Like their division rival Colts, I’m tempted to highlight the Jaguars’ celebrated former first-round pick, Travis Hunter, in this space — especially now that he’ll be focusing on "just" playing cornerback. But Tuten is one of my favorite breakout candidates throughout the entire NFL. With Travis Etienne now in New Orleans, I expect Tuten to emerge as the Jaguars’ top runner in 2026, with 1,000-plus rushing yards a realistic target. His longest run from scrimmage as a rookie went for only 15 yards, but I anticipate several explosive plays of 20-plus yards this year.
Like several others on this list, Winston has already proven himself to be a quality NFL starter. Now, he just needs to stay healthy. He missed the beginning of last season recovering from an ACL tear back at Penn State and saw his rookie campaign end early due to a stubborn hamstring pull. In the 10 games in which he played, however, Winston stood out, including during an exciting three-game stretch against Seattle, Jacksonville and Cleveland just prior to the hamstring injury in which he generated 23 tackles, including four for loss and two pass breakups. I’m excited about the upgrades Tennessee has made to its defense and believe Winston will be one of its biggest beneficiaries.
Headlined by All-Pro Patrick Surtain Jr., the Broncos boast one of the NFL’s best cornerback rooms. Denver’s "other" starter on the outside — Riley Moss — led the NFL in pass breakups (19) a year ago and nickel corner Ja’Quan McMillan is also very good. That left little opportunity for Barron to see the field as a rookie last year, and he started just five of 17 games. The former Thorpe Award winner and No. 20 overall pick is simply too good not to see the field more often in 2026. I think Barron could beat out Moss on the outside this year and, even if not, certainly leaves Denver in an excellent position with the latter in the final year of his own rookie deal.
A strong argument could be made to spotlight cornerback Nohl Williams here, but let’s be honest, all eyes in Kansas City this year will be on Patrick Mahomes — and the rebuilt offensive line tasked with protecting him. Simmons was the eighth offensive lineman drafted last year, but I think he is the most gifted blocker in his class. He may have made some nervous when missing time last year due to personal reasons and a wrist injury, but he played well when on the field, allowing just two sacks while starting eight games. Simmons has Pro Bowl potential.
It would be easy to list Ashton Jeanty here, but with 10 touchdowns scored as a rookie, he’s already an established focal point of the Raiders’ offense. Klint Kubiak and Fernando Mendoza were brought to Las Vegas to liven up the passing game and Bech is a good bet to win big if that occurs. The 6-foot-2, 215-pounder flashed as a rookie. He possesses the body control and strong hands to win contested passes — which could be a theme in the Raiders’ passing game regardless of whether Mendoza or longtime veteran Kirk Cousins is throwing the passes.
It will be fun to watch the evolution of the Chargers' offense this year, with Jim Harbaugh bringing in Mike McDaniel as his offensive coordinator. Should L.A. morph into the uptempo aerial assault McDaniel excelled with (at times) as head coach in Miami, second-year wideout Tre Harris could pop for exponential gains over his rookie season. Ultimately, though, this remains Jim Harbaugh's operation and I think he sticks to his roots, riding Hampton as a true workhorse to at least double last year’s output (545 rushing yards, four TDs).