Iran-backed Houthi threat in Red Sea could lead to major US policy shift, analysts say

JOHANNESBURG: As the Iran-backed Houthis step up their threat to Red Sea shipping, analysts say the U.S. could consider a major change in strategy.

Houthi attacks on ships passing through a vital chokepoint may lead Washington to cement relations with more reliable partners along Africa’s coastline.

Somaliland is a pro-U.S. outpost, having broken away from war-torn Somalia in 1991, and is offering the U.S. the use of one of the longest runways in Africa, an air base and a deep sea port on the Red Sea.

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The Houthis have vowed to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway through which Saudi Arabia exports up to 7 million barrels of oil a day, now that access to the Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted. In the past month in the Red Sea, the Houthis have reportedly attacked Saudi-flagged ships, are said to have sunk an Indian commercial cargo vessel and, on Aug. 13, an Egyptian cargo ship was hit, with at least four of its crew killed.

The U.S. already has a large military base on the Red Sea in Djibouti, but this is claimed to be increasingly problematic. "China is significantly expanding its military and commercial presence in Djibouti," Edmund Fitton-Brown previously told Fox News Digital.

Fitton-Brown, the former British ambassador to the Houthis’ home country, Yemen, and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, (FDD), added, "There is a sense that Djibouti is not a reliable ally for the U.S. So Somaliland’s time has probably come."

Major General Ken Ekman, who retired last year from being the Department of War’s West Africa Coordination Element Lead, said, in essence, the Houthis could force the U.S. into recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. "The Houthis could compel a different U.S. strategy in Africa."

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Ekman said the Houthis are building up a second front in this Middle East conflict. "It distracts the U.S. and stretches our assets," he added.

"The Houthis have a strategy of their own. They are testing U.S. military ability, and are likely to pull the trigger in a major way when Iranian influence in the Strait of Hormuz wanes in leverage."

He said that recently the U.S. Africa Command, AFRICOM, has concentrated on looking at land-based threats. "To date, our Africa strategy is driven by counterterrorism missions against Islamist al Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups based in Africa."

He continued, "These groups pose a limited and not immediate threat to the U.S. homeland. Overall, Red Sea basing to date has focused more on crisis response in East Africa, countering and competing against Russia and China."

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Ekman added, "orienting a Horn of Africa strategy against the Houthis would place a premium on freedom of navigation. Somaliland is proximate and overcomes some of the limitations imposed by other regional hosts like Djibouti and Middle East partners."

Limitations and an apparent sense of frustration with Somalia, Somaliland’s neighbor and rival, have been expressed in a warning from U.S. Air Force Gen. Dagvin Anderson, commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM).

In a recent interview with a Somali journalist, he was asked whether the U.S. was pulling out of the nation and turning its back on it.

Anderson said the U.S. has not turned its back on Somalia, having been committed to the country for several years, he noted the success of its counterterrorism group known as DANAB, which he said is "one of the most capable forces on the continent." He noted that "it was up to Somalia to sustain that force… to build it and continue to make it effective going into the future and use it as it was designed to counterterrorism."

Referring to the Somali government’s apparent lack of ability to deal decisively with Islamist al-Shabab terrorists, Anderson seemingly hinted at pulling some or even all military support. "If Somalia steps up and the government steps up and takes the lead on this, we will continue to be there because there is mutual interest."

He continued, "But if we can’t see that in, the political instability and political infighting continues, then it’s going to be very hard for us to continue to stay engaged."

Bill Roggio, editor of the Long War Journal, said Washington is fed up with Mogadishu, but currently not enough for the U.S. to change allegiance to Somaliland.

He told Fox News Digital, "The U.S. has expressed displeasure with the Somali government's rampant corruption and internal infighting with local and regional governments, and with various clans. However, full recognition of Somaliland independence would create a major rift between the U.S. and Somalia."

Roggio didn’t rule out the U.S. operating a second Red Sea base in Somaliland, saying "U.S. forces situated at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti are far better situated geographically to deter the Houthis from shutting down the Bab el Mandeb Strait than a potential base in Somaliland. That being said, redundancy (back up plan) is a good thing in military operations."

"The United States needs reliable partners on Africa's coastline," Bashir Goth, Somaliland Representative to the United States, told Fox News Digital.

Goth said, "Somaliland is that partner and our defense officials have been in active dialogue with AFRICOM on Red Sea security. Somaliland has the geography, the stability and the will to work closely with Washington — and will continue to do so."

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Officially, the U.S. still stands with Somalia, in preference to Somaliland.

A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "The United States works with Somali and international partners to address terrorist threats in Somalia when necessary and appropriate to protect U.S. national security interests."

In the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and 13 other nations established a new maritime defense coalition to combat the Houthi threat. Publicly, at least, the U.S. is not part of this coalition.

Responding to questioning on this issue, a State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "The United States stands firmly with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against Houthi terrorism. We are in close consultation with our Saudi allies and remain committed to their security."

The U.S. does appear though to be stepping up interaction with Somaliland. AFRICOM Commander Anderson again visited Somaliland this past week, with an official statement saying he "traveled to the port city of Berbera to assess the security environment and review the port’s operational capacity."

In the same week, the U.S. reportedly hosted a delegation of Somalilanders led by the state’s defense minister at AFRICOM HQ in Stuttgart, Germany, where Red Sea security was reportedly again discussed.

AFRICOM and the Department of War did not respond to Fox News Digital requests for information about the visits.