Iran’s unseen supreme leader becomes weapon in escalating power struggle, experts say

Iran’s rival political factions are increasingly invoking the authority of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to attack their opponents and protect their own positions, even as questions persist over whether he is actively governing the country, according to an Iran expert.

The internal struggle surfaced in two reports published by Iran International concerning Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s relationship with the new supreme leader.

In the first report, senior cleric Mohammad-Bagher Kharrazi, a relative of the Khamenei family by marriage, claimed Pezeshkian had repeatedly threatened to resign and was warned that his next resignation would be accepted.

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"If he resigns one more time, I will approve it," Kharrazi quoted Khamenei as saying.

Pezeshkian’s office strongly denied the account. Mehdi Tabatabaei, the president’s deputy for communications and information, called the allegation "baseless and an outright lie," while another presidential advisor said Kharrazi had no contact with the supreme leader and was known for telling "strange stories."

Hours later, Iran International published a second report alleging Pezeshkian had met Mojtaba Khamenei only once, inside a vehicle with tinted windows at an undisclosed location in Tehran.

According to the outlet’s unnamed sources, the encounter lasted several minutes, the two men could not see each other and Pezeshkian was not permitted to shake Khamenei’s hand. The report alleged that the president later questioned whether the voice he heard had actually belonged to the supreme leader.

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The claims have not been independently verified. Pezeshkian previously described a substantially different encounter, saying publicly that he had spent approximately two and a half hours with Khamenei in a cordial atmosphere.

Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran, said the competing claims surrounding Pezeshkian and Mojtaba Khamenei reflected a deeper struggle inside what he described as an "Islamist oligarchic mafia system."

Under Ali Khamenei, Aarabi said, the supreme leader functioned as the system’s "godfather," arbitrating among rival Islamist factions and guaranteeing their access to power and money. His removal created a vacuum that Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment was intended to fill, but the new supreme leader’s prolonged public absence has left rival factions uncertain about who is actually in charge.

"The very essence of this mafia system is built on a godfather," Aarabi said. "If the godfather is absent, whether because he is severely incapacitated or nonexistent, that vacuum… re-emerges between the various Islamist oligarchic clans."

Aarabi said those factions are not primarily divided by ideology.

"They’re not competing over ideology," he said. "They’re competing over raw power and economic interests."

In that environment, Aarabi said, Mojtaba Khamenei’s name has become a political instrument that competing factions can invoke to legitimize themselves, constrain their rivals or justify decisions whose true source remains unclear.

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"Mojtaba’s name is the glue that’s holding the system together right now," Aarabi said. "Each of these clans invokes his name to justify its existence, legitimize its position, and consolidate its place within this fragile system."

Exiled Iranian journalist Mehdi Ghadimi described the resignation claims as part of a recurring political strategy used by reformist administrations.

"This is a familiar cycle," Ghadimi said. "Whenever they feel that their usefulness to the supreme leader has come to an end, they start circulating these resignation rumors in an effort to build public sympathy and improve their image before being pushed aside."

Ghadimi said similar rumors surrounded former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani during the final years of their administrations. He argued that reformist-aligned media channels often continue circulating resignation claims even after a president’s office formally denies them, allowing officials later to portray themselves as having challenged the supreme leader.

On Mojtaba Khamenei’s status, Ghadimi went further than Aarabi, saying he did not believe there was "a functioning person by that name who is capable of thinking, making decisions or speaking."

"Either he is dead, or he is being kept alive in an extremely unstable and severely deteriorated condition," Ghadimi said.

Aarabi said the two reports illustrate that dynamic. A cleric opposed to or unaligned with Pezeshkian invoked Mojtaba Khamenei’s authority to weaken the president by claiming his next resignation would be accepted, while figures around Pezeshkian pushed back with an account portraying the president as having met directly with the supreme leader.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in any publicly released video or audio recording since succeeding his father, according to Iran International. Iranian officials have offered conflicting accounts about how often senior government figures have met him.

Aarabi cautioned that using Khamenei’s name as a source of authority will become increasingly difficult if his public absence continues.

"There’s only so many times you can use someone’s name without any proof of life that they actually exist," Aarabi said. "The longer Mojtaba is absent, the more questions develop over whether he is alive or able. And as soon as that doubt increases, you will see this infighting increase."