Christopher Sanchez's dominant home ERA makes Phillies run line the play against Yankees
It was a bit of a dull weekend on the diamond. I haven't been all that impressed with the matchups. Usually, baseball has some really good pairings for the weekend, but now and then, there aren't too many impressive series. I do like the Seattle and Texas one, but we've covered them once, and I don't have a great read on the game today. So, I'm going with the other game that I like - New York vs. Philadelphia.
The New York Yankees are just two games back in their division, but for whatever reason, it feels like this team is on the verge of a collapse. Maybe I'm exaggerating here, but something about the conversation from the media is that the Yankees are falling apart. I don't quite see it, but they do have a very talented roster on the injured list, so maybe that's the issue. The good news for them is that Ben Rice is having a fantastic season, their players could all return healthy in plenty of time, and they are still a likely playoff team.
The Yankees are looking for a sweep today, and they send out Will Warren to get the job done. Warren has been fine this year. He has been reliable, tossed a reasonable number of innings, and hasn't missed any time due to injury. He did, for some reason, pitch for less than an inning in relief on Wednesday. His numbers are seven wins and four losses, with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Philadelphia hitters have seen him 31 times and gotten eight hits, with only Kyle Schwarber launching one over the fence.
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The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the better teams in baseball this season. They are 5.5 games back of the Braves at the moment, but this was a division that looked like Atlanta would lock up by the end of May, so this has been some progress. Looking at the team and players' statistics, the one thing that has stood out to me is that Schwarber leads them in homers, Brandon Marsh leads in average, and Bryce Harper leads in RBIs. It isn't just that three different guys lead them in three different categories; it is that there are even more on the team having really strong years. They have six guys hitting .240 or better.
It shouldn't be surprising that a good team has players performing well. Part of what makes the Phillies so dangerous is their ability to not need just one guy to carry the load. In the rotation, I will say one guy, tonight's starter, does seem to be carrying his weight and then some. Christopher Sanchez is having another solid year with a 12-4 record, 2.64 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. Sanchez has been fantastic at home with a 1.03 ERA as well. Honestly, the only bad home start he has had was the All-Star Game. Yankees hitters are hitting just .200 against him in 45 at-bats.
I'm sure we can find a player prop if you're looking for that sort of thing. Ever since sports betting became legal basically everywhere, I feel like the daily fantasy stuff is not as popular. Maybe it is, and I'm just not paying attention. Either way, Cody Bellinger is someone you might want to add on the team, and Ryan McMahon is someone to fade.
For the game, there are two options here - the Phillies, despite losing the first two games of this series, should win tonight. Sanchez has been great in Philadelphia. Paying -193 for them to win is not something I'm interested in. Instead, I am going to take the Phillies on the Run Line tonight. I've made this point before and need to follow it more. The Yankees have had 25 1-run games this year, and the Phillies have had 27. In 105 games, that's less than 25% of their final scores being decided by a run. Give me the Phillies -1.5.
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