Trump must close the back door China uses to exploit North American trade

Review doesn’t mean rubber stamp. The United States shouldn't rush to extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement for another 16 years simply because the calendar says it's time.

USMCA has strengthened North American trade and deepened commercial ties with two of the United States’ largest trading partners. But its scheduled review was never intended to be a formality. It was designed to force policymakers to evaluate whether the agreement is delivering on its promises and to correct course when it isn't.

That is exactly what the Trump administration is doing.

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Having just returned from the latest round of negotiations in Mexico, I am encouraged by constructive conversations. Progress has been made. But significant issues remain unresolved. Extending the agreement before addressing them would surrender the United States' greatest source of leverage.

In 2025, Mexico was our nation's largest trading partner, with around $873 billion in goods trade. Yet while trade with the United States has expanded, Mexico has increasingly served as a gateway for steel from countries whose governments distort global markets through subsidies and overcapacity.

Between 2020 and 2024, Mexican steel imports from South Korea, China and Vietnam rose 44%, 59% and 39%, respectively. Overall steel imports into Mexico climbed 45% during that period. Those imports gained preferential access to the North American market despite originating from countries that have long undermined fair competition.

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The consequences are clear in U.S. import data. Imports of Mexican rebar in 2024 were roughly 1,148% above their average level before USMCA. At the same time, demand for steel in the U.S. declined by more than 11 million tons since USMCA was negotiated, yet imports from Mexico remained elevated.

Canada presents a similar challenge.

From 2020 through 2024, Canadian imports of Chinese steel increased approximately 75%. China remains the world's largest source of excess steel capacity, a problem responsible for displacing production, depressing prices and killing manufacturing jobs across the globe. Yet Canada enjoyed privileged access to the U.S. market.

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These trends are inconsistent with the spirit of a North American trade agreement intended to strengthen regional manufacturing.

Fortunately, the solutions are straightforward. Canada and Mexico should adopt border measures comparable to the United States’ successful Section 232 steel tariffs to prevent unfairly traded steel from entering North America through alternative routes. Both countries should restrict investment by non-market economies in strategically important industries. USMCA should strengthen steel-related rules of origin and adopt a true "melted and poured" requirement so that steel receiving preferential treatment is genuinely produced in North America, not merely processed here after originating elsewhere. Above all, we cannot allow the hard-won gains in revitalizing American steel manufacturing to be rolled back in ways that export American jobs.

Critics argue that businesses need certainty and that renewing USMCA immediately would provide it. But certainty was never the sole purpose of the agreement's review mechanism. Its architects intentionally built periodic reviews into the agreement to ensure the pact continued serving North American interests.

Nor is there a cliff approaching. Failure to renew this year does not terminate USMCA. The agreement remains in force for years to come unless a country chooses to withdraw, while scheduled reviews provide opportunities to strengthen its provisions.

The review provisions are working exactly as intended.

Negotiations with Mexico are the furthest along, while talks with Canada may intensify after President Trump’s recent deployment of the section 338 tariffs. If the Trump administration secures a strong agreement that meaningfully addresses longstanding concerns with Mexico, it should not hesitate to move forward on a bilateral basis rather than allow the broader USMCA review to become a source of unnecessary delay. Such an agreement could also serve as a blueprint that Canada would be welcome to adopt if and when it is prepared to meet the same standards.

The objective should not be preserving a three-country framework for its own sake, but securing the strongest possible agreement with America’s largest trading partners. If Mexico is prepared to negotiate comprehensive reforms that strengthen North American manufacturing and close the agreement’s most significant loopholes, President Trump should seize that opportunity.

The United States accounts for roughly 85% of North America's economic output. That market access is enormously valuable, and it should be accompanied by reciprocal commitments to combat unfair trade, strengthen regional supply chains and prevent non-market economies from exploiting loopholes in our trade rules.

North America is strongest when its trade is genuinely fair. The current review offers a rare opportunity to modernize USMCA, close obvious loopholes and ensure the agreement fulfills its original purpose. President Trump is right to resist calls for a premature extension. A stronger agreement is worth the wait.