Could this African nation become Trump's next terror target as jihadists close in on power?
JOHANNESBURG: The U.S. is reportedly considering airstrikes against al Qaeda-linked terrorists in Mali, according to regional analysts and recent media reports.
The military junta that has been running this West African country in the Sahel region since coups in both 2020 and 2021 turned away from France and the U.S. to get military protection from Russia and its Africa Corps mercenaries against jihadist groups.
But now the largest of these groups, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has Mali’s capital under siege, is credited, along with another group, for killing 50 Malian soldiers this month, for the death of the country’s defense minister earlier this year and has reportedly sent battalions of Russian soldiers retreating on at least two occasions this year.
JNIM is said to want to change the country into an Islamist Jihadist state. If they succeed, Mali would be the first country in the world to be run by a jihadist group. The organization was designated officially as a Foreign Terrorist Organization during the first Trump administration in 2018.
Islamic State (ISIS) jihadist groups are also operating freely in Mali, and are linked to terror groups in neighboring Nigeria.
A State Department official didn’t respond to a Washington Post report that the U.S. is considering strikes against JNIM in Mali, but used strong language Thursday when talking to Fox News Digital, leading analysts to suggest the time for talking may be over.
"The United States unequivocally condemns the terrorist activity in Mali," the official said, adding, "in the Sahel, the United States is committed to promoting regional ownership and cooperation against terrorist threats, and monitoring indicators and warnings of threats to our homeland."
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British and United Nations diplomat, said the U.S. could order military action, to primarily try and stop jihadists becoming entrenched in Mali. Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital, "Mali is mainly important to the U.S. because, as a failed state becoming a safe haven for al Qaeda and ISIS, it looks like the first of several African dominoes likely to fall."
Retired U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth P. Ekman, who until last year, served as the Department of War’s West Africa Coordination Element lead, said that with strike action the administration may be able to persuade Mali’s rulers to turn away from Russia, and towards the U.S. for protection – and purchases of military equipment.
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Ekman told Fox News Digital, "JNIM has a stranglehold on the government and much of the population. The Russians are woefully ineffective and extractive. Cooperation with U.S. forces offers a disproportionate and positive impact."
Ekman said that U.S. forces have supported partner-led operations against JNIM before, as recently as 2022, adding "recent proposals amount to returning to similar cooperation against a mutual threat."
The administration may also be in a minerals frame of mind. Mali is one of Africa’s largest gold-producing nations. It also has substantial deposits of lithium, used extensively in rechargeable batteries.
Fitton-Brown said that "President Trump may be less reluctant than his predecessor to work with the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, if they are losing faith in their Russian friends."
He continued, "The U.S. is certainly a more capable partner. France has already been displaced, so all three countries might accept U.S. help if it comes only with strings attached that don’t offend or disadvantage them. Whether even the U.S. is capable of stopping the political decline of these countries, and the rise of militant Islam, is another matter. That cannot be achieved by military force alone."
The FDD’s Fitton-Brown said U.S. assets such as aircraft may not be directly involved if there is a strike, "The U.S. might work with French and other intelligence services to develop local intelligence for strikes on JNIM leadership, but this is unlikely to achieve much. The organization is resilient and will be able to replace those killed."
A former senior Department of War official told Fox News Digital the U.S. has at its disposal cruise missiles and long-range bombers. Attack drones would probably not come into play, and the U.S. Naval Institute’s Fleet Tracker shows no American aircraft carriers anywhere near African waters, effectively ruling out carrier operations.
However, Ekman believes airstrikes are under consideration, noting "JNIM and ISIS are a threat to U.S. interests, and are ascendant in West Africa."