AOC surges past Buttigieg, leaves Harris in the dust in key 2028 battleground poll

Progressive firebrand Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has surged to the front of the prospective 2028 Democratic presidential field in New Hampshire, edging former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and leaving former Vice President Kamala Harris far behind in a new poll.

Ocasio-Cortez drew 22% support among likely Democratic primary voters in the University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released Wednesday, one point ahead of Buttigieg and 17 points ahead of Harris.

Ocasio-Cortez gained seven points since the February survey, while Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom lost ground — another sign of the four-term New York lawmaker’s growing strength among Democratic voters in the early presidential battleground and of her overall burgeoning popularity and standing in the party.

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Ocasio-Cortez has been coy about her 2028 plans and careful not to rule out either a White House run in the race to succeed term-limited President Donald Trump, or a bid for the Senate against longtime Democratic Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, who is up for re-election in two years. When asked about a run for higher office, Ocasio-Cortez recently said her goal is to "change the country."

Buttigieg, a moderate who as the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, came in second in the 2020 New Hampshire presidential primary, has crisscrossed the country in support of fellow Democrats the past year as speculation builds around a possible 2028 run.

"Nearly half of socialists and one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while pluralities of liberals and moderates support Buttigieg," Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said.

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Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, a retired astronaut, stood in third place in the poll, at 9%, with the term-limited Newsom a point back. The California governor's support dropped seven points since the February survey.

Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the 2016 and 2020 runner-up in the Democratic presidential primaries, stood at 6%. The 84-year-old Sanders, asked about another White House run, said last month, "I suspect that's not going to happen." He jokingly added, "I know I look like I'm 30. I am not."

Meanwhile, Harris, the party's 2024 nominee after she replaced then-President Joe Biden, who dropped out less than four months before the election following a disastrous debate against Trump, grabbed only 5% support in the new poll, down from 10% in February.

While the former vice president's numbers in the latest New Hampshire survey are nothing to brag about, she tops an average of the most recent national polls in the hypothetical race for the 2028 Democratic nomination. Surveys in the early stages of a presidential cycle are often heavily influenced by the name recognition of the potential candidates.

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Everyone else in the large field of potential contenders tested in the New Hampshire poll registered at 2% or less.

New Hampshire held the first-in-the-nation presidential primary for a century, before Democrats upended their nominating calendar in the 2024 cycle, moving South Carolina to the lead-off position. The Democratic National Committee's (DNC) Rules and Bylaws panel is likely on Friday to unveil a new calendar for the 2028 cycle, which would be voted on at the DNC's summer meeting in Austin, Texas, next month.

Republicans have not altered their calendar, keeping the Iowa caucuses as their lead-off state, followed by New Hampshire.

In the race for the GOP presidential nomination, 36% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they would support Vice President JD Vance, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26%.

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Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who ran for the nomination in 2016 and is mulling another bid, stood at 8% in the survey, along with former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was the runner-up to Trump in 2024.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also bid for the nomination in 2024, grabbed 6% support, with everyone else tested at 4% or less.